What does the sub prime melt down mean and who gets the blame

Right now all we seem to hear about in any economic news is the subprime meltdown and how it is responsible for everything. Now the sub prime meltdown is bad but it is also misunderstood in both cause and effect. Let’s look briefly at both sides

The Cause - Everyone wants to blame the lenders for this. To me they get say 20-40% of the blame at most, sure they were stupid and sure it is biting them in the ass right now, as it should but they are not the real ones to blame. Our nation is so fixated on passing the buck and not actually blaming the person who is guilty our grandparents may not recognize our nation if they were with us today.

So who should get the blame for taking rapidly accelerating ARMs, hybrid mortgage loans and borrowing to the absolute limits of their budgets? Doesn’t really take a genius to figure it out does it? The people that took out mortgages that were too high or had bad terms are to blame. That is your fellow Americans and or you yourself if you took out these loans. It is so ever loving easy to blame corporate America but in the end if you borrow money and can’t or don’t repay it the blame is on you, not the company that loaned you the money.

The Effect - The news about the subprime market makes me think of El Niño. Remember El Niño the weather pattern back in the 90s that we blamed for everything. To me that is the sub prime meltdown today. A stock goes down, blame the sub prime lenders. A company lays off workers blame the sub prime market. To many illegal aliens are crushing our educational and health care systems, blame it on the subprime market. Our nation has over spent and is in a 58 trillion dollar hole just for social security alone, blame it on….OK you get the point.

The reality is the subprime bust is bad, very bad but it is also being used as an excuse for other problems in the market. Even the lenders are probably more effected by toxic unsecured (credit card) debt then bad sub prime loans. Yet make no mistake lending institutions are going to loose an estimated 300-400 billion or more before the whole thing comes to an end. Some banks will get bought by other banks, some will flat out shut down and all and all this is going to be another reason for the coming recession or more accurately depression.

Yet when it hits don’t let the talking heads on the idiot box tell you it all because of the greedy sub prime lenders First they are taking a bath you would not believe right now and getting what they deserve, lost money and some going under. Next the real reason for our recession is the US Government is spending far more money then we have and has been for 35 years, the bills are coming due.

So what can you do about all this?

First I advise you to read my post from yesterday about the overall weakness in the economy and watch the video with Comptroller General David Walker to get some specific understanding of what our real problems are and to learn some ways you can protect your assets.

Second I recommend you visit MorCap Fund Advisors, LLC and read their excellent article on the subprime meltdown to better understand it and its’ impact our our economy.

How bad is it for our economy

I am not a gloom and doom type but I do believe in being prepared and I also don’t believe in just letting your money sit and wait in mutual funds and stocks when a clear bad time is on the way.   If I were you and I had my money in conventional US Stocks I would get out and do it now.

How bad is it really? I invite you to listen to this interview on the Glenn Beck show with Comptroller General David Walker. This should scare the hell out of you. You will learn how bad the pending social security nightmare really is.   Honestly we are “bankrupt” as a nation.

If you add this to the mortgage problems and our other weaknesses we are in real trouble.

So where would I put my money or more accurately where is my money going?

• First I am putting a good chunk into 2 year Australian Bonds at a guaranteed rate of 7.5% plus any gains as the dollar further weakens.
• Second Gold is a good hedge that has done very well, I will buy more and my only regret is that I did not buy more in the past.
• Third hold cash and possibly in the form or foreign currency such as in a United Kingdom or Canadian bank perhaps even buy bonds in some other forigne markets. Right not as I mentioned above Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK are all in great shape financially.

I don’t want to sound un American here at all but the simple fact is we are in over our heads for more then 58 trillion dollars and we have zero.   Again listen to the interview with David Walker, this man has no political axe to grind and he is the chief accountant for the United States government.   His message is simple, we are out of money.

So my advice is protect your hard earned dollars by converting them into something other then dollars.  Perhaps not all of them but pick a percentage and diversify before this bad problem gets a lot worse.

Save money and become better shot

If you have read much of this blog then you know I am a big supporter of both saving money and the second amendment. In fact I take it a step further as I actually consider it a “duty” for law abiding and sane adults in the United States to be trained on how to use and to own a firearm. In fact I rank it right up there with your duty to vote and exercise free speech.

The other thing I am of course huge on is saving money. Now let’s face it ammunition can be expensive to buy especially for some calibers and makes of gun. In order to be proficient you of course have to practice a lot. The other issue with practice is time, if you live out in the country and can set up a range in your back yard, great, for the rest of us though every practice session is a trip to the gun range. Again this is costly in both time and money.

For me a big part of the solution is high quality replica air guns. I have used such guns to keep in practice and as a great first step in training new people. Air Gun Depot is an excellent source for high quality air guns and you may want to visit their site and see what they have available. The beauty is today’s replica guns are great training aids for a variety of reason’s

• They by and large are the same size, weight and dimensions as actual firearms
• To a high degree they function very similar to the guns they represent
• You can fire them indoors with appropriate safety measures or in many back yards again with proper safety measures so you can practice more often
• They help you teach safety and at the same time are safer then a real fire arm in the hands of a new shooter
• They are very inexpensive to shoot so you can practice a great deal on trigger control etc.
• They don’t develop trigger jerking or flinching in new shooters

In short I think air guns (both airsoft and conventional) are great training aids worthy of use by all firearms enthusiasts. They let you have a lot of fun for very little cost and will make you a consistently better shooter at the same time.

Outsource your IT and Development

Especially for the small to mid sized business owner I am a huge fan of outsourcing. There are certain functions that you should never outsource and these I consider to be “outsourcing your soul”. So if you business builds custom cabinets and you outsource cabinet construction that to me means you no longer make cabinets you simply sell them. Yet would most small cabinet shops really have the resourses and in house knowledge to maintain a web presence or if they do a lot of business online to deal with something as complex as web hosting colocation?

Even a “high tech company” will generally not be able to provide for all of its needs with in house talent especially the countless individuals that work from home building websites that sell a variety of services and products. I have often used services like RentACoder for my needs but honestly that has been hit or miss with quality and time to delivery.

One resource you may want to consider is Momentum which acts as a single source of contact and more importantly accountability for all your IT outsourcing needs. I cannot over state the value of accountability when you are outsourcing technology projects. So just what type of IT needs can you outsource to momentum? A few things like

• Media Design
• Server Management
• Application Development
• Programming Work
• Data Back Ups
• And even on demand consulting

Today you can easily and inexpensively run a business with the proper use of outsourcing. Whether you are a small to mid sized business or an individual internet based entrepreneur, services like Momentum offer an excellent way to leverage your business and compete with much bigger companies by being more nimble and adaptable to challenges and opportunities.

Cut your health insurance costs

I was asked to take a look at a new health insurance website called, Peoples Health Insurance and I have to say I was impressed with their offering. These guys are not a broker but an actual agency that can help you find the best rates and the best plan for your needs. I took a look specificly at health insurance Florida programs because I know by and large Florida is a high market for all insurance needs.

Health insurance costs are something I suggest you take a look at every year whether you are a self insured individual or a business owner, either way health insurance costs tend to be one of your biggest single expenses.  So now is the time early in 2008 take a moment and evaluate your current insurance program and its’ costs.  Take a look at the service they provide and what they cover and don’t cover.  You know my view if you can get the same or better for less money then do it.

Building Wealth the Trump Way

As you know I am big on three big things; cutting costs, reducing debt and building wealth. The reality is you could simply call that entire formula building wealth as no wealth building formula excludes debt reduction or cutting expenditures. As a long time fan of Donald Trump I was therefore really excited when Donald Trump came out with a new book called, Wealth Building 101 so of course I picked up a copy right away.

Rather then a book by Trump this is a book by some of his personal advisers and a team of hand selected experts. The book was then edited by Trump to gain his final approval. What I really liked is that Wealth Building 101 is not the typical Trump book that is just focused on business owners or even just business people.  This book is full of advice that will help anyone build and preserve wealth even if they are just a routine employee that works hard and wants more for themselves and their families.  As books go I recommend this one highly.

When it has to be there now use a courier

Mail is great be it with the post office, UPS or say FedX but what if you need something sent across town, not by tomorrow but before a presentation at noon the mail just doesn’t get the job done.  Or say you need some items taken to the post office but just don’t have the time or resources to get it done right now. Well the solution is simple, use a good courier service.

For those in Connecticut I have a good recommendation try using MDCS who prides themselves on being one of the best Hartford couriers and over all one of the best in the state of Connecticut.  I was asked to check out their website and can tell you they provide outstanding rates, guaranteed service and personalized service you won’t find from a national service.

Many people tend to view a couriers as expensive, I never have. I can either get a currier to take care of a delivery or pay my employee to do it (while he doesn’t do what I really pay him to do) or do it myself and at that time not be taking care of my real business. Last option is to not get something where it needs to be, when it needs to be there.  All of those end up being infinitely more expensive.   So if you need a courier in Connecticut look up MDCS if you are elsewhere then just let your fingers do the walking with your search engine of choice.

Do you need to fund a lawsuit

I am not big on “suing people for profit” and in fact I think that business is a big part of what is wrong with America today. Yet lawsuits have a place and they are a way for individuals and companies to attempt to right a wrong.  Business owners in particular may on occasion have no recourse other to file suit in certain circumstances.

In fact put yourself in this place for a second.  You own a small company that makes software and you come up with a great new product.  Along comes a much bigger company and steals your code, “improves” the product and basically says there is nothing you can do about it.  Such things can and do happen.  Now again you are a small company, facing a much bigger fish and you know they can drag it out and bankrupt you before you ever get a decision.

What recourse do you have?

You might want to consider Commercial Lawsuit Financing to fund your case from LawMax Legal Finance.   There are many times when you can’t get a good attorney on a “contingency basis” which is where the attorney will handle the case and all expenses and only get paid after they win the case for you.   In fact getting an attorney to work that way may be pretty easy in a personal injury case but in a business to business suit it can be very difficult indeed.

Services such as LawMax actually evaluate your case, determine if you have a good case and then if approved they actually loan you the money on that same contingency basis where you only repay the advance if you win your case or reach an out-of-court settlement!.  Again while I don’t think people should be suing for profit it is good to see that a service like this exists to help smaller companies take on their adversaries when necessary.