Building Wealth - Cutting Costs

I have blogged a lot on gold, silver and other metals thus far because I firmly believe that they represent a great hedge against inflation, a good long term investment and because I feel they offer a lot of protection from the coming recession. So when this article from Forbes hit my RSS Reader this morning I was quick to have a look at it. The article is title, Gold’s Allure Growing, and I recommend you give it at least a quick read.

While I found the article interesting and quite accurate I do feel they sort of glossed over a key reason for gold going up recently and a reason that gold will continue to go up for quite a while. Here was the only mention of this factor in the article,

“Demand for the metal is also strong in Asia, for jewelery and as a store of value.”

That was the only mention of this factor in the entire article and I find this very much missing the boat. Why? Well, because with China and India what we have is more then 2 Billion (with a big B) people who are rapidly growing their middle class and both societies have a tremendous appetite for gold jewelry. I recently read a report on of the foremost expert on gold and mining operations who stated that we currently have “at least a 10% shortfall on the production vs. demand for gold most of which is attributed to the rising demand in India and China for gold jewelry.”

In other words those 2 billion people are buying gold faster then it can be extracted from the ground. The big issue with that is it has never happened before. The demand for gold has always been based on how rare it is and that has always created a demand yet until now anyone could always buy as much as they could afford. Today we have unmeetable demand and the demand is growing faster then the production and again this is the first time in modern history that such a condition has existed in the gold market.

I highly advise any investor (small or large) to have a serious heart to heart conversation with your financial advisers about putting at least 10-20% of your holdings into gold, gold funds, etc. The increased demand and declining dollar together make gold a real winning opportunity at least in my opinion right now.

In an effort to stimulate the economy the congress and the president are working to provide an economic stimulus package. One big part will be sending most tax payers some of their tax money back, to the tune of from 300-800 dollars per taxpayer may be even as high as 1600 per household. You can read an article by newsday.com to get more specifics about it.

In any event I have mixed emotions about this. As a Libertarian I believe that all income tax is theft in the first place and I really can’t argue with the government giving back money they should have never taken in the first place. However, in this instance while not totally opposed (I just can’t oppose less tax no matter how it comes) I have sever very big concerns/issues with this plan.

• Right now everyone is worried about the 2008 election. So even Mr. and Mrs. raise taxes (Barak and Hillary) are behind this massive retroactive tax rebate. Make no mistake this is buying votes by both sides of the isle.

• True conservatives are always saying lower taxes are good for the economy and liberals always say that is wrong. Yet now that we are in deep shit everyone agrees cutting taxes makes the economy better? All this means is they all know all the time that low taxes are good and simply keep up the graduated income tax as a way to distract us all with “class warfare”.

• In most instances I don’t see cutting taxes as “spending” yet in this case it is pure reckless spending. Why? How? Simple, no one in congress is talking about cutting any expenditures to fund this rebate. In other words they are still going to spend all the money they were going to spend and GET THIS our country is OUT OF MONEY. So where will we get the billions to fund this rebate? Well the fed will fire up the presses and just print more money at least symbolically. Honestly though our government will borrow it from foreign governments and increase out debt. In other words you kids get to pay back you debt on your 800 bucks with interest and will have to do so with a dollar that is weaker in the world market every day.

• This package is a very short term fix. The whole theory is most people will “blow” their money and dump it in the economy and that will beef up spending for a bit and put more money into the economy and the rising tide will then float all boats. The theory is sound most people will blow it (instead of saving or paying on debt) and it will make it “better” but our “boat” has big holes in it. Make sense? This move won’t reduce US debt, reduce toxic consumer debt, fix the housing market or reduce our massive spending deficit.

So how could this plan actually work? You only have to change the spending equation on the side of the government to make it work very well. Check this way out,

1. Require the government to give back at least the money they plan to right now.
2. Require that they also cut 2 dollars in spending for every dollar returned to tax payers

That’s it! That would “stimulate the economy”! Our nation is not in trouble because our people spend to little, it is in trouble because the government takes too much of our money and then spends far more then even what they steal from us. Fix that problem, yes cut taxes but cut spending by 2 dollars for every dollar you refund to us.

I was asked to take a look at a new health insurance website called, Peoples Health Insurance and I have to say I was impressed with their offering. These guys are not a broker but an actual agency that can help you find the best rates and the best plan for your needs. I took a look specificly at health insurance Florida programs because I know by and large Florida is a high market for all insurance needs.

Health insurance costs are something I suggest you take a look at every year whether you are a self insured individual or a business owner, either way health insurance costs tend to be one of your biggest single expenses.  So now is the time early in 2008 take a moment and evaluate your current insurance program and its’ costs.  Take a look at the service they provide and what they cover and don’t cover.  You know my view if you can get the same or better for less money then do it.

I recently listened to the audio book version of Where Have all the Leaders Gone by Lee Iacocca. The book was pretty good and quite insightful and while Lee has quite a few views I think are bad ideas (raising the gas tax for one) he also has a lot of good ones. The biggest point was that we need more people to pay attention to the political process specifically the younger voters.

In the book he went through all the front runners and left Ron Paul out, not sure when he had written the book I let that go. Yet in the book he talks about setting up a website for the 2008 election where people can rank the canditates on his “9 C’s of Leadership”. In December with very little plubicity that site was launched. You can find it here, http://www.iacocca.com

While I was able to let go of the Ron Paul omission in the book the fact that he now basicly owns the internet for the 2008 race makes his exclusion from the listed candidates unacceptable. To be fair Ron is not really excluded you can and should rank him, he is just hidden from the initial view.

And just who is listed on the main score card!

Joe Biden - Dropped out

Bill Richardson - Dropped out

All the rest included I can’t argue with their inclusion, nor do it it is only Ron Paul’s exclusion while Biden and Richardson are included that tweaks me.

There is a solution though, if you want to make sure Ron is ranked to this,

1. Go to Iaccoca’s Rate the Candidates Site and set up a free account.

2. Click the confirmation email and log in.

3. Click on rate the canditates and while you are doing it in the left margin you will see a link that says, “score more candidates” click that and about a dozen more will show up. Then one from the very bottom you will find Ron. Rank him and any others you wish.

To me Ron is a much a candidate as anyone right now, 10% in Iowa, 8% in New Hampshire and massive support online. It is clear to me that Iacocca must have something against Ron Paul as there is no good reason to exclude him from what is a pretty cool Web 2.0 website while including Biden and Richardson both who are not even in the race!

Now the irony, while there click on “view aggregated score card” and guess who is number one anyway? Ron Paul and who is number two, Alan Keyes who I also think is an outstanding leader! Will such exclusion never end. Anyway I would ask you to consider getting an account at Lee’s site and ranking Paul and the other candidates because the idea is an excellent one.

One more suggestion. There is a link on the score card page to request inclusion of candidates. Please send a NICE but firm message to Iacocca asking that Ron be included based on his campaign and good finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire and pointing out that two candidates they currently display in the default have dropped out may not hurt either.

OK the other day I made a series of predictions on the New Hampshire primary in my what are you doing in 2008 post. Some I got right, some I got very wrong. Lets review….

Republican side

1. Rudy does awful and everyone says it doesn’t matter. - Got it dead on!

2. John McCain wins and his national numbers rock because people are lemmings. - Got it dead on!

3. Mitt Romney does OK and comes in second and they say it is over for him. - Got it sort of, Romney did come in 2nd but the media has held off saying his campaign is over. - Where I went wrong, the republican base stayed with Romney in New Hampshire and only a 4 to 1 break for McCain in independents that voted republican gave McCain the victory. I am not sorry about being wrong here, Romney to me is a much better choice then McCain.

4. Ron Paul does far better then the 8% the polls say he can expect. Comes in third and gets ignored again. - I was wrong he got almost exactly 8% which still put him right in the mix with the other candidates but he did not do as well as I predicted. He did however, largely get ignored by everyone but Fox News. Why? Backlash for the debate the excluded Ron from! Where did I go wrong? I gave the concept of freedom in the minds of New Hampshire voters to much credit. Honestly this concerns me for our nation.

There were really 6 predictions there I got 4 of 6. Not all that bad and I don’t pretend to understand New Hampshire primary voters.

On the Democrat Side

1. Barock wins by 10% - Wrong and the rest of my predictions hinged upon this. Barock lost, I was wrong.

2. Hillary gets slammed and the media runs to her defense. - Wrong, clearly missing number one blew this for me. This is another place I am happy to be wrong. I don’t want Hillary but I think she is easier to be for any republican and her economics while disastrous for the U.S. economy are still better then Obama’s.

3. Edwards does ok in 3rd but the media talks about how that is “hope for his campaign” even though there are only four Democrats in the race. Idiots. - Got it spot on but this was no real big prediction.

4. Bill Richardson gets a clue and drops out. - Another easy one and Bill is “making an announcement at a press conference today”, wanna guess what he is going to be saying.

So how did I blow it so bad expecting Obama to slam Hillary? I commited a cardinal sin and believed the polls with out knowing more about the landscape of democrats and democrat voting independents in New Hampshire. I must admit I am not strong when it comes to understanding how liberals think, like Michael Savage I believe, “liberalism is a mental disorder”.

Well South Carolina is the next place everyone will really be looking at. On the Democrats I am not ready to pick a winner but I do think it is do or die for Edwards. On the republican side look for a shoot out between Mike Hukabee and Fred Thompson. I will make some predictions and go on the line with them in another few days.

Don’t worry this isn’t one of my “get your financial butt in line” posts, well mostly not. I am just wondering what everyone is up to in general, like what you are watching on TV, etc. Personally I have been enjoying Celebrity Apprentice quite a bit. Check out this video showing what a snake that Omarosa is. Got to be one of the biggest sleezes known to man in my book. To me this is why so many people are looking to build a business of their own, to buy a business or just to find some way to be independently employed. I mean who really wants to deal with a corporate environment that has far more then its’ fare share of Omarosas.

I have also started out on a diet. Last year I elected to not go Elk hunting because honestly I was afraid I might die somewhere alone on the mountain. The last time I went I had a great but tough time. I came home with blistered and even bloody feet and was sore for a week. Back then old CostCutter was in much better shape. This year going out into the unforgiving wilderness alone seemed like a big risk. Since I am way to young to give up that type of life I am getting back in shape. Who knows, perhaps when I loose my weight I will come clean and say who I am.

Additionally I am breathing some new life into a few of my businesses with some creative ideas and looking to hire a few new creative and talented people. The search for talent is really tough right now, I just listened to this podcast on the shortage of talent in the market today and I have to really agree with the guest speaker. While real estate investing today seems to be a buyers market there is no question that in the talented and skilled employee market it is a sellers market. If you are good, have a proven track record and can deliver then today you call the shots. If you are in the market for a new position and are not finding a lot of opportunities I recommend you get in touch with a good executive recruiting firm.

On another note all together I really think the 2008 presidential race is off to an interesting spin. Ron Paul still seems to be shunned by the media despite basicly finishing in a three way tie with 10% of the vote while Rudy was at only 4%. Typical!

Today we focus on New Hampshire, I predict the following for the republicans.

1. Rudy does aweful and everyone says it doesn’t matter.

2. John McCain wins and his national numbers rock because people are lemmings.

3. Mitt Romney does OK and comes in second and they say it is over for him.

4. Ron Paul does far better then the 8% the polls say he can expect. Comes in third and gets ignored again.

Such is the stupidity of our media and the political process.

Moving on the the Democrats - Hillary has had a break down practically coming to tears because she was asked how her day was mostly because Barock Obama is now surging in New Hampshire and she is on track to loose again. Of course the news is making a huge deal of Barock’s massive support. His followers indeed love him, they laud his speeches and vision yet the news people can’t seem to find a single supporter that actually knows his position on any of the big issues. America, please wake up, support who you want but for the love of God know why you support them.

My personal view I think Hillary is a disaster for this country as our President, her health care plan, tax hikes and some other policies will only serve to make worse a recession that is flat out coming to hit us hard over the next few years.   That said Barock is worse, he want to tax more, spend more and make government even bigger and more intrusive then Hillary.  However he can speak very well, avoids the issues and is very likable.  This is why Hillary is in trouble, even her supporters realize Barock is going to be harder for any Republican to beat and are picking the best candidate to win in November.

I personally think Hillary is unelectable and if she looses the primary (which I predict) Barock is probably a 2 to 1 favorite just in odds to win the presidency.  In other words a Hillary loss in the primaries is bad for the republicans while her victory would be very good indeed for them.

My predictions for the Democrats in New Hampshire are as follows.

1. Barock wins by at least 10% of the vote and we hear all the liberal papers cheer how it is finally time, “for an African American president”. When the country has been “ready” for a long time and we are all really tired of being called racists in subversive ways by the communists running our press.

2. Hillary gets slammed, perhaps even damn near ties with Edwards. This is spun as the “end of Hillary by the right” and some how a “right wing conspiracy” or “anti women” thing by the left. The left leaning media will hold out all hope for Hillary and talk about how New Hampshire and Iowa “don’t really matter”. Of course they really don’t it is just that the media just spent the last 30 days convincing us how much they do indeed matter.

3. Edwards does ok in 3rd but the media talks about how that is “hope for his campaign” even though there are only four Democrats in the race. Idiots.

4. Bill Richards gets a clue and drops out.

So what are you up to in 2008? What do you think of our coming elections?

You hear liberals all the time discuss how the tax cuts by Bush were reckless. Now look I am not exactly pleased with Bush myself right now and I think his spending (and that of our both the Democrats and Republicans in Congress) is absolutely reckless and disgraceful. Yet cutting taxes makes a lot of sense, further I think we should keep cutting lower and lower.

In fact if I had my way Ron Paul would become our next President and completely cut the income tax to zero. Think that is unreasonable? Well if we cut spending to where it was just 7 years ago we could eliminate the income tax. Yea your read that right, just cut spending to 2000 levels and we do not need an income tax. That should make you really understand just how many other taxes we already pay.

I digress though, lets just talk about an easy way to understand why lower taxes are good for our economy. Now I could go into Economic theory and formulas and such but that is not necessary. I can instead explain this in a very simple and easy to understand way, think of it simply like having a “sales”. If you ran a store and wanted to sell more products would you do it by raising prices or by having a sale?

Now that is about a stupid question isn’t it? Anybody knows when stores have sales they sell more and when they jack up pricing they sell less.

The important thing to understand is that employment, investing and spending is what drives our economy. So to understand why lower taxes drive better economies from here is really easy. Let’s look at how taxes going up or down effect each of these three factors.

Employment - When taxes are lower businesses keep more of their profits rather then giving them over to the government. When a company has more money in profit they grow. As they grow they have more needs for personal and of course they hire more people. In short a lower tax is like a sale on hiring talented people. When you tax a business higher of course we have the exact opposite effect. Companies keep less profit, there is less funding available and they grow slower and hire new people at a slower rate.

Investing - This is simple to understand. If you invest money that inherently comes with risk. So if I put 50,000 dollars into an investment I could loose much of it. On the other hand if the investment does well I end up with a profit but I only keep the part I don’t pay as taxes. For me to take a risk the upside has to be attractive so of course the lower the tax on investment profits the more attractive investments are. Now if you want me to do something incredibility risky like fund a new business I better get to keep the lion’s share of my profit or there is no good reason to take the risk.

You see when taxes are low on capital gains it is like a sale on investments. Effectively I am paying less money to make more money. Did you know that at one time tax rates were as high as 90% for some income brackets. 90%! Don’t believe me look at some historical tax rates here. Now let me ask you why would anyone risk say 100,000 dollars to fund a start up business as a part owner. End up making 200,000 dollars for the investment and then have to pay all but 10,000 of it as taxes? Why in the hell would anyone take such a risk for so small of a true return? Again when this tax goes up it is like when a store raises its’ pricing and when taxes go down money flows in a “sale like” environment. Simply put when investments go on sale more investors buy more investments.

Spending - Now I am all for saving money but if no one spends any money the economy grinds to a halt. This one is the easiest of the three to understand. Tax Joe and Jane America at a lower tax rate and they keep more of their money, when people have more they spend more. In short for the average consumer lower taxes are a “sale” on everything. You just have to do a bit of inverse thinking to understand this. Joe works 10 hours a day and makes 250 dollars for his day of work. Each day he pays 100 back in tax so he profits an actual 150 dollars.

So Joe values money according to that formula. Hence he “pays” 10 hours of his effort for a 150 dollar item. Now tax Joe only 50 dollars and he now profits at 200 dollars for the day. Now a 150 dollar item only “costs” him 7.5 hours! In short by taking less taxes Joe is now buying everything at a 25% discount.

The combined effect

The reality is the economy is like an ecosystem composed of these three factors of spending, investing and employment. None can sustain themselves with out the other two. There is far more complexity then this but a basic understanding is simple.

• When more money is available to business from profit and from investors they hire more people.
• When more people are employed they have more money to spend, hence they spend it.
• When people spend more money it drives business and results in more profits
• When people can find jobs and get paid well and are taxed lower they also invest more
• Investments then feed business

It is really a circle of economic life. In this circle low taxes are like good fertilizer that makes everything healthy and grow faster. Higher taxes are like salting the earth, they lay waste to the ecosystem and stall growth. Now democrat or republican should not matter this is mathematical science and math does not lie.

Debate the role of government if you like, support a guy with an R or a D after his name or if you are smart perhaps an I. Yet don’t ever be fooled by how there is any good to come from higher taxes. Don’t let the government pitch class warfare on you saying only the “rich” are going to see higher taxes. Right now most American’s work till April 30th to pay all taxes, that is enough, more is not the answer.

Oh and yea I really meant it that we could totally eliminate the income tax, watch this video on Ron Paul for more about that.

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