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Why cutting interest rates is bad for the economy

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

Today I installed the contact form plugin for the WordPress blog platform. This is a great plugin that I recommend for anyone using WordPress; any way in just a few moments after adding my contact page, I got my first question. Here it is along with my answer,

“CostCutter, I have seen you do two posts recently stating how great low interest rates are and how anyone looking to refinance or buy is really lucky that rates are so low. I have also seen a lot of people on the T.V. saying that these rate cuts are actually bad. So which is it and why do these guys say low rates are so bad and you say they are so good.”

That is a great question but it assumes that I disagree with the folks saying these rate cuts are bad, actually I agree with them. My posts about low interest rates from today and the coming interest rate cut yesterday do seem to be positive on the rate cuts and they are but only on one dimension. What I am saying is if you need to refinance are are looking to buy a home then the low rates are very good for you as an individual. Therefore you should take advantage of them.

On the other side I actually think that long term these artificial rate cuts are just bad news for the economy. The reality is we have real problems in this nation that sooner or later have to come out. Things like rate cuts and tax cuts with no corresponding spending cuts only delay the eventual recession and every time we delay it we are just making the eventual market correction worse. No one in the government believes they can stop the recession, they just want to soften the landing but my belief and the belief of most economists is they are actually going to make it a much harder landing.

What you have to understand is why cutting interest rates “works” in the first place. The US economy is driven by spending, when spending slows then everything goes down. There are less jobs, less money in the system, less everything. When interest rates are low spending increases because it costs less money to borrow money so you can buy a bigger house, a bigger car, get a better rate on your credit card etc. These cuts cuts in “the prime rate” or how much the government charges your bank to borrow money. The bank of course is not in business for fun they add to the rate and loan money to you so lower prime rate equals lower rates for everyone and in theory more spending.

The problem is this theory only works long term if people are responsible with debt and it won’t help people who are already in the hole. If you are four payments behind on your home you can’t get a refinance loan no matter how low rates go. If you are paying 29% on your credit card your credit sucks and no one is going to give you a low interest one. Our country is in trouble because to many people spent money they can’t pay back and our government has done the same. When we artificially cut rates we simply put more people into more debt. In other words the country goes deeper into the hole and when at some point we are required to crawl out it will be more not less painful.

If this explanation seems oversimplified it isn’t.   In fact I will make it more simple. If your family is in debt and about to go broke and you take your debt of say 200,000 dollars and refinance it to a lower interest rate to reduce your payments it makes the situation better at first. If however, you then grow your debt back to the original payments you could not make then you are in more not less trouble. When our government puts out these low rates and increases personal and business debt in an economy where people are already in the hole it is the same exact thing.

In short I am glad for the responsible consumer that rates are low, I certainly did not want rates risen to higher levels but the reason behind this cut is nothing but a delay that is going to make what is bad already, worse.

Four things I would start doing online to make money as a newbie

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2008

It seems like forever ago when I first built my first website. In fact it was more then 10 years ago and at times it is easy to loose touch with how overwhelming it is for a brand new potential internet entrepreneur who wants to get started today. So I though I would share four ways a new person can begin to get started. None are all that hard but none can be complete with out learning more, these are just starting points.

1. Get a blog and do some blogging for dollars. I suggest you try not to be to obvious about this because Google has begun to give the smack down to bloggers that do this. I recommend you never use the name of the companies that you go through to find business on your blog as you are just asking for problems. What I can simply say is go to google and search for “get paid to blog” and you will find many options.

Now you are going to have to blog for about 90 days and do so at least 4 times a month to qualify for these types of services. Once you do however, you can and will make money. I won’t go deeper right now but will make some specific how to details available in the future. Let me just say that anyone that wants to can put an extra 500-1500 a month into their income column can just by doing this.

2. Learn the very basics of website design and publishing, even a tiny bit of say PHP programming can go a long way. Today if you can slap together a website you can make some money. Spend the money for a good design software and take a course on it at a community college or a CEU class at a university. Total investment may be about 1,000 dollars and it may make you a lot more then any degree will. You don’t have to be a great designer but at least be able to build simple sites, you can out source the actual “graphics” work.

Most sites are nothing but a header, a footer and some pictures. Outsource your graphics and build a site. Make your first site about something you just love to talk about and don’t worry if you make a dime on it. All you need at first is the “ability” to build and design sites. Learn how to do it and do not rely on site builders they are to limiting. Today if you can publish content there are countless ways to make money. Oh and you can pay your tuition with one months worth of blogging with suggestion number one above.

3. Start with affiliate marketing and take your skills from item two to build unique websites that provide information, build email lists and sell a few products around a niche. Later you may and honestly should create your own products and keep all your profits but in the beginning you are learning how to market and sell online so dedicate all your efforts to doing so.

A great source of items that others have made that you can sell for about a 50% commission can be found at Click Bank. Odd are there is a product about any subject you can think of. Most sell in the 50 dollar range and pay about 25 dollars in commission. You don’t have to make anything, deal with customers, etc. This is not a long term way to get rich but it is a great way to learn and earn at the same time.

4. Become an adSense Affiliate and a Yahoo Publisher, neither pay the big money they used to but they are both very passive ways to earn some extra money. In time with enough sites anyone can pull in a hundred dollars a month at least. Remember invest 100 dollars a month from age 18-65 in quality funds in a tax deferred or sheltered account and you are a multi millionaire.

The key with adSense and Publisher is make your ads blend into your sites. The inexpensive wine site I reviewed a few days ago does a good job at this. Use back ground colors that match, make the links the same color as links on your site and above all no borders for the ads. Then be sure to put the ads in prominent spots on your site, don’t hide them remember you want people to click on them.

So there you go 4 places to get started with making money online. Each has its on benifits and challenges yet if you commited to learning how to at least do all four in the next 6 months you are well on your way to truly building a solid and passive online income. In time you out source more and more and you don’t do all the work yourself. Yet in the beginning it is important to be sure you understand things, learn what you want and what you don’t want.

More then that learn to make some money asap and again bloggin for dollars is a 100% guaranteed way to start the income flow. From there you can branch out, learn more and keep building.

One more important thing. Don’t buy over priced crap, info courses and other bullshit. There are countless gurus out there, well countless self appointed internet marketing gurus that claim to have the secret to making money. They are mostly full of crap and even the ones with good info unless you learn the fundamentals first it won’t do you any good.

Start with free advice and perhaps use some of the online video courses that don’t cost to much. Learn basics, learn “how to” and then you can develop “what to” on your own terms. I promise you one of the surest ways to kill of your future in making money online is buying one to many 297 or 997 dollar how to courses.

Don’t buy that crap, start with a blog, learn to make sites, practice with affiliate products and sell ad space along the way with Google and Yahoo. Look for solid how to advice and instruction and limit your spending on “education” to 50 dollars or less a month (other then stuff like the college course I mentioned) and you will in time work things out. Gurus exist not to make you rich, they exist to enrich themselves with your dollars.

What does the sub prime melt down mean and who gets the blame

Tuesday, January 15th, 2008

Right now all we seem to hear about in any economic news is the subprime meltdown and how it is responsible for everything. Now the sub prime meltdown is bad but it is also misunderstood in both cause and effect. Let’s look briefly at both sides

The Cause - Everyone wants to blame the lenders for this. To me they get say 20-40% of the blame at most, sure they were stupid and sure it is biting them in the ass right now, as it should but they are not the real ones to blame. Our nation is so fixated on passing the buck and not actually blaming the person who is guilty our grandparents may not recognize our nation if they were with us today.

So who should get the blame for taking rapidly accelerating ARMs, hybrid mortgage loans and borrowing to the absolute limits of their budgets? Doesn’t really take a genius to figure it out does it? The people that took out mortgages that were too high or had bad terms are to blame. That is your fellow Americans and or you yourself if you took out these loans. It is so ever loving easy to blame corporate America but in the end if you borrow money and can’t or don’t repay it the blame is on you, not the company that loaned you the money.

The Effect - The news about the subprime market makes me think of El Niño. Remember El Niño the weather pattern back in the 90s that we blamed for everything. To me that is the sub prime meltdown today. A stock goes down, blame the sub prime lenders. A company lays off workers blame the sub prime market. To many illegal aliens are crushing our educational and health care systems, blame it on the subprime market. Our nation has over spent and is in a 58 trillion dollar hole just for social security alone, blame it on….OK you get the point.

The reality is the subprime bust is bad, very bad but it is also being used as an excuse for other problems in the market. Even the lenders are probably more effected by toxic unsecured (credit card) debt then bad sub prime loans. Yet make no mistake lending institutions are going to loose an estimated 300-400 billion or more before the whole thing comes to an end. Some banks will get bought by other banks, some will flat out shut down and all and all this is going to be another reason for the coming recession or more accurately depression.

Yet when it hits don’t let the talking heads on the idiot box tell you it all because of the greedy sub prime lenders First they are taking a bath you would not believe right now and getting what they deserve, lost money and some going under. Next the real reason for our recession is the US Government is spending far more money then we have and has been for 35 years, the bills are coming due.

So what can you do about all this?

First I advise you to read my post from yesterday about the overall weakness in the economy and watch the video with Comptroller General David Walker to get some specific understanding of what our real problems are and to learn some ways you can protect your assets.

Second I recommend you visit MorCap Fund Advisors, LLC and read their excellent article on the subprime meltdown to better understand it and its’ impact our our economy.

How bad is it for our economy

Monday, January 14th, 2008

I am not a gloom and doom type but I do believe in being prepared and I also don’t believe in just letting your money sit and wait in mutual funds and stocks when a clear bad time is on the way.   If I were you and I had my money in conventional US Stocks I would get out and do it now.

How bad is it really? I invite you to listen to this interview on the Glenn Beck show with Comptroller General David Walker. This should scare the hell out of you. You will learn how bad the pending social security nightmare really is.   Honestly we are “bankrupt” as a nation.

If you add this to the mortgage problems and our other weaknesses we are in real trouble.

So where would I put my money or more accurately where is my money going?

  • First I am putting a good chunk into 2 year Australian Bonds at a guaranteed rate of 7.5% plus any gains as the dollar further weakens.
  • Second Gold is a good hedge that has done very well, I will buy more and my only regret is that I did not buy more in the past.
  • Third hold cash and possibly in the form or foreign currency such as in a United Kingdom or Canadian bank perhaps even buy bonds in some other forigne markets. Right not as I mentioned above Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK are all in great shape financially.

I don’t want to sound un American here at all but the simple fact is we are in over our heads for more then 58 trillion dollars and we have zero.   Again listen to the interview with David Walker, this man has no political axe to grind and he is the chief accountant for the United States government.   His message is simple, we are out of money.

So my advice is protect your hard earned dollars by converting them into something other then dollars.  Perhaps not all of them but pick a percentage and diversify before this bad problem gets a lot worse.

Teaching kids to invest and think smart about money

Sunday, January 13th, 2008

The good old piggy bankI know a lot of adults that are doing what they can to teach kids about investing and saving money. The most common way is the good old fashioned piggy bank.  There is something to be said especially with younger children to putting some change in a piggy bank.  It is a good start but it is also quite limited.  With the good old pig you always can open him up and raid the savings and the savings lack any type of leverage.  You earn no interest and little Johnny’s or little Dorothy’s pennies end up worth less ever day, unless they are solid copper that is.

My view is it is important to have kids open their first bank account as soon as they are old enough to grasp the concept.  A Roth IRA with some monthly contributions should be set up by age 12 and money should be discussed from a positive outlook.  Don’t teach your children things like, “money is the root of all evil” as that is not the proverb anyway.

People that do well with money come from homes that discuss and value money.  Now of course you must teach ethics, family values and over all life lessons as well.  Your kids shouldn’t worry about money or believe it is the end all be all.  Yet they should understand it and its power, both good and bad and you should teach them the Building Wealth Philosophy as early as possible.

One of my favorite books for parents helping kids learn to invest is Rich Dad Poor Dad for Teens The Secrets About Money–That You Don’t Learn in School!  To me this book is an absolute must read.

One way or another make sure you are making things like money, avoiding toxic debt, savings and investing positive topics of discussion with your kids.  I am not saying your kiddos first words should be leverage and interest over mamma and dada but you get the point.

Trust Deed Investing a Creative Investment Strategy

Friday, January 11th, 2008

Right now the mortgage industry seems to be in melt down but real estate investing has a proven track record of making great returns even during recessions, that is when properly leveraged. In short trust deed investing is basically when private investors loan money that has real estate offered as collateral against the loan. Trust Deed Investing is nothing new; banks and private individuals have been loaning money against hard assets like land and other real estate for centuries.

In essence trust deed investing is like taking the position of being the bank in a mortgage vs being the slep paying interest for 30 years.

I recently asked to review a website for Diamond Bay Investments who specialize in trust deed investing.   They are currently advertising returns of 12%.  Investments like these are not with out risks and you should of course consult with your financial advisers before investing with any company or investment.

That said trust deed investing has a high potential rate of return and it is protected by a hard asset (land, property, buildings) so it is worth considering.  It is not a place I would advise anyone to put all their money but it is one underutilized investment option that is a great part of a long term balanced investment portfolio.

Do you need to fund a lawsuit

Thursday, January 10th, 2008

I am not big on “suing people for profit” and in fact I think that business is a big part of what is wrong with America today. Yet lawsuits have a place and they are a way for individuals and companies to attempt to right a wrong.  Business owners in particular may on occasion have no recourse other to file suit in certain circumstances.

In fact put yourself in this place for a second.  You own a small company that makes software and you come up with a great new product.  Along comes a much bigger company and steals your code, “improves” the product and basically says there is nothing you can do about it.  Such things can and do happen.  Now again you are a small company, facing a much bigger fish and you know they can drag it out and bankrupt you before you ever get a decision.

What recourse do you have?

You might want to consider Commercial Lawsuit Financing to fund your case from LawMax Legal Finance.   There are many times when you can’t get a good attorney on a “contingency basis” which is where the attorney will handle the case and all expenses and only get paid after they win the case for you.   In fact getting an attorney to work that way may be pretty easy in a personal injury case but in a business to business suit it can be very difficult indeed.

Services such as LawMax actually evaluate your case, determine if you have a good case and then if approved they actually loan you the money on that same contingency basis where you only repay the advance if you win your case or reach an out-of-court settlement!.  Again while I don’t think people should be suing for profit it is good to see that a service like this exists to help smaller companies take on their adversaries when necessary.

Consider Northern Trust for Wealth Management

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008

My primary goal here at this blog is to help the average person learn simple ways to build above average wealth. As you begin to build wealth the key is to make sure you have the right wealth management team.  Northern Trust is a premier provider of banking, asset management and asset servicing to affluent families and individuals and leading institutions worldwide.

With a proven track record Norther Trust a company I can recommend with out any hesitation.  They also offer some exception free financial resources.  For more information visit their website and check out the Global Economic Research link.  You work hard for your money and it should be hard at work for you.  It should also be protected because as I have posted about before we have the potential to see a recession that could make 1978 look like the “good old days”.

Now I am no gloom and doom forecaster but it is more then probable right now that we are in for some tough times.  Many entrepreneurs are used to going it alone, I have been guilty of it myself.  Yet when it comes to investing, asset protection and preserving the future of your family’s future alone is a very bad choice.  Rely on professionals and that is what you will find at Northern Trust Banking & Asset Management.