My New Hampshire Predictions
OK the other day I made a series of predictions on the New Hampshire primary in my what are you doing in 2008 post. Some I got right, some I got very wrong. Lets review….
Republican side
1. Rudy does awful and everyone says it doesn’t matter. - Got it dead on!
2. John McCain wins and his national numbers rock because people are lemmings. - Got it dead on!
3. Mitt Romney does OK and comes in second and they say it is over for him. - Got it sort of, Romney did come in 2nd but the media has held off saying his campaign is over. - Where I went wrong, the republican base stayed with Romney in New Hampshire and only a 4 to 1 break for McCain in independents that voted republican gave McCain the victory. I am not sorry about being wrong here, Romney to me is a much better choice then McCain.
4. Ron Paul does far better then the 8% the polls say he can expect. Comes in third and gets ignored again. - I was wrong he got almost exactly 8% which still put him right in the mix with the other candidates but he did not do as well as I predicted. He did however, largely get ignored by everyone but Fox News. Why? Backlash for the debate the excluded Ron from! Where did I go wrong? I gave the concept of freedom in the minds of New Hampshire voters to much credit. Honestly this concerns me for our nation.
There were really 6 predictions there I got 4 of 6. Not all that bad and I don’t pretend to understand New Hampshire primary voters.
On the Democrat Side
1. Barock wins by 10% - Wrong and the rest of my predictions hinged upon this. Barock lost, I was wrong.
2. Hillary gets slammed and the media runs to her defense. - Wrong, clearly missing number one blew this for me. This is another place I am happy to be wrong. I don’t want Hillary but I think she is easier to be for any republican and her economics while disastrous for the U.S. economy are still better then Obama’s.
3. Edwards does ok in 3rd but the media talks about how that is “hope for his campaign” even though there are only four Democrats in the race. Idiots. - Got it spot on but this was no real big prediction.
4. Bill Richardson gets a clue and drops out. - Another easy one and Bill is “making an announcement at a press conference today”, wanna guess what he is going to be saying.
So how did I blow it so bad expecting Obama to slam Hillary? I commited a cardinal sin and believed the polls with out knowing more about the landscape of democrats and democrat voting independents in New Hampshire. I must admit I am not strong when it comes to understanding how liberals think, like Michael Savage I believe, “liberalism is a mental disorder”.
Well South Carolina is the next place everyone will really be looking at. On the Democrats I am not ready to pick a winner but I do think it is do or die for Edwards. On the republican side look for a shoot out between Mike Hukabee and Fred Thompson. I will make some predictions and go on the line with them in another few days.
Filed under Politics | Comment (0)What are you doing now that 2008 is here?
Don’t worry this isn’t one of my “get your financial butt in line” posts, well mostly not. I am just wondering what everyone is up to in general, like what you are watching on TV, etc. Personally I have been enjoying Celebrity Apprentice quite a bit. Check out this video showing what a snake that Omarosa is. Got to be one of the biggest sleezes known to man in my book. To me this is why so many people are looking to build a business of their own, to buy a business or just to find some way to be independently employed. I mean who really wants to deal with a corporate environment that has far more then its’ fare share of Omarosas.
I have also started out on a diet. Last year I elected to not go Elk hunting because honestly I was afraid I might die somewhere alone on the mountain. The last time I went I had a great but tough time. I came home with blistered and even bloody feet and was sore for a week. Back then old CostCutter was in much better shape. This year going out into the unforgiving wilderness alone seemed like a big risk. Since I am way to young to give up that type of life I am getting back in shape. Who knows, perhaps when I loose my weight I will come clean and say who I am.
Additionally I am breathing some new life into a few of my businesses with some creative ideas and looking to hire a few new creative and talented people. The search for talent is really tough right now, I just listened to this podcast on the shortage of talent in the market today and I have to really agree with the guest speaker. While real estate investing today seems to be a buyers market there is no question that in the talented and skilled employee market it is a sellers market. If you are good, have a proven track record and can deliver then today you call the shots. If you are in the market for a new position and are not finding a lot of opportunities I recommend you get in touch with a good executive recruiting firm.
On another note all together I really think the 2008 presidential race is off to an interesting spin. Ron Paul still seems to be shunned by the media despite basicly finishing in a three way tie with 10% of the vote while Rudy was at only 4%. Typical!
Today we focus on New Hampshire, I predict the following for the republicans.
1. Rudy does aweful and everyone says it doesn’t matter.
2. John McCain wins and his national numbers rock because people are lemmings.
3. Mitt Romney does OK and comes in second and they say it is over for him.
4. Ron Paul does far better then the 8% the polls say he can expect. Comes in third and gets ignored again.
Such is the stupidity of our media and the political process.
Moving on the the Democrats - Hillary has had a break down practically coming to tears because she was asked how her day was mostly because Barock Obama is now surging in New Hampshire and she is on track to loose again. Of course the news is making a huge deal of Barock’s massive support. His followers indeed love him, they laud his speeches and vision yet the news people can’t seem to find a single supporter that actually knows his position on any of the big issues. America, please wake up, support who you want but for the love of God know why you support them.
My personal view I think Hillary is a disaster for this country as our President, her health care plan, tax hikes and some other policies will only serve to make worse a recession that is flat out coming to hit us hard over the next few years. That said Barock is worse, he want to tax more, spend more and make government even bigger and more intrusive then Hillary. However he can speak very well, avoids the issues and is very likable. This is why Hillary is in trouble, even her supporters realize Barock is going to be harder for any Republican to beat and are picking the best candidate to win in November.
I personally think Hillary is unelectable and if she looses the primary (which I predict) Barock is probably a 2 to 1 favorite just in odds to win the presidency. In other words a Hillary loss in the primaries is bad for the republicans while her victory would be very good indeed for them.
My predictions for the Democrats in New Hampshire are as follows.
1. Barock wins by at least 10% of the vote and we hear all the liberal papers cheer how it is finally time, “for an African American president”. When the country has been “ready” for a long time and we are all really tired of being called racists in subversive ways by the communists running our press.
2. Hillary gets slammed, perhaps even damn near ties with Edwards. This is spun as the “end of Hillary by the right” and some how a “right wing conspiracy” or “anti women” thing by the left. The left leaning media will hold out all hope for Hillary and talk about how New Hampshire and Iowa “don’t really matter”. Of course they really don’t it is just that the media just spent the last 30 days convincing us how much they do indeed matter.
3. Edwards does ok in 3rd but the media talks about how that is “hope for his campaign” even though there are only four Democrats in the race. Idiots.
4. Bill Richards gets a clue and drops out.
So what are you up to in 2008? What do you think of our coming elections?
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