Protected: Why US Real Estate is a Good Investment Right Now
What does the sub prime melt down mean and who gets the blame
Right now all we seem to hear about in any economic news is the subprime meltdown and how it is responsible for everything. Now the sub prime meltdown is bad but it is also misunderstood in both cause and effect. Let’s look briefly at both sides
The Cause - Everyone wants to blame the lenders for this. To me they get say 20-40% of the blame at most, sure they were stupid and sure it is biting them in the ass right now, as it should but they are not the real ones to blame. Our nation is so fixated on passing the buck and not actually blaming the person who is guilty our grandparents may not recognize our nation if they were with us today.
So who should get the blame for taking rapidly accelerating ARMs, hybrid mortgage loans and borrowing to the absolute limits of their budgets? Doesn’t really take a genius to figure it out does it? The people that took out mortgages that were too high or had bad terms are to blame. That is your fellow Americans and or you yourself if you took out these loans. It is so ever loving easy to blame corporate America but in the end if you borrow money and can’t or don’t repay it the blame is on you, not the company that loaned you the money.
The Effect - The news about the subprime market makes me think of El Niño. Remember El Niño the weather pattern back in the 90s that we blamed for everything. To me that is the sub prime meltdown today. A stock goes down, blame the sub prime lenders. A company lays off workers blame the sub prime market. To many illegal aliens are crushing our educational and health care systems, blame it on the subprime market. Our nation has over spent and is in a 58 trillion dollar hole just for social security alone, blame it on….OK you get the point.
The reality is the subprime bust is bad, very bad but it is also being used as an excuse for other problems in the market. Even the lenders are probably more effected by toxic unsecured (credit card) debt then bad sub prime loans. Yet make no mistake lending institutions are going to loose an estimated 300-400 billion or more before the whole thing comes to an end. Some banks will get bought by other banks, some will flat out shut down and all and all this is going to be another reason for the coming recession or more accurately depression.
Yet when it hits don’t let the talking heads on the idiot box tell you it all because of the greedy sub prime lenders First they are taking a bath you would not believe right now and getting what they deserve, lost money and some going under. Next the real reason for our recession is the US Government is spending far more money then we have and has been for 35 years, the bills are coming due.
So what can you do about all this?
First I advise you to read my post from yesterday about the overall weakness in the economy and watch the video with Comptroller General David Walker to get some specific understanding of what our real problems are and to learn some ways you can protect your assets.
Second I recommend you visit MorCap Fund Advisors, LLC and read their excellent article on the subprime meltdown to better understand it and its’ impact our our economy.
Filed under Business & Marketing | Comments (2)Getting rid of the poverty consciousness
This post is an extension of my post on, not resenting people doing better then you from a few days ago because that is also part of a “poverty consciousness” but today I am going to go deeper into this concept that I call financial cancer. So what is a poverty consciousness? In short it is the belief that money and wealth are scarce. That you have to be lucky or crooked to become rich and that cheaper is always better.
Now given my blog URL is CutThatBill.com you would think I would be all over the “cheaper is better” philosophy but I am not. There is a place for it,
- When it comes to a mortgage get the lowest rate
- When it comes to phone service pay the least
- When you buy a car negotiate the lowest sales price you can
In essence when you buy a specific item of a given quality there is no reason not to pay less if you can. Unfortunately this is not how most of the psychologically broke thinks.
I remember the first time I went back to the little coal town I grew up in after having built a successful career and life. I was going to go off on my own and do some fishing and stopped by a local donut shop for a coffee and a couple of old fashioned donuts. I was going to grab them and go but decided to sit down and enjoy my breakfast because I was on vacation and had all day.
Being alone and just browsing at a paper I heard quite clearly all the conversations around me. One word was used over and over by the mostly elderly crowd in their chit chat. That word was “cheaper”, this was “cheaper” here, that was “cheaper” there, Joe was a crook because his gas was two cents higher a gallon that at Tony’s where it was “cheaper”.
I got up and left, I just couldn’t listen any longer. Cheaper, cheaper, cheaper it was like being subjected meat grinder. While I fished that morning for small mouth bass with the sun on my back enjoying life though I realized that I used to be exactly the same way. When I lived in this town I remembered driving to Tony’s Gas Station to save the 2 cents, (5 mile drive in a car that got 10 miles to the gallon). I remembered all of it and I realized it wasn’t success that shed this constant “cheaper” search from me it was getting away from a culture married to it.
I can’t blame the people of that town, specifically the elderly on “fixed incomes” it is a poor place that never really recovered from the depression back in the 1930s. In fact my Grandfather used to say, “the Great Depression came, then it went, we never noticed.” Yet what I realized is this mentality of poverty is a big reason why my town is still poor to this day. The people all think they are poor, they expect to be poor and so they are.
After that day I realized much of this mentality was still in my head. I had shaken some of it off but not enough. I was still limiting my vision of success, of retirement of what I could expect to gain in life. I was still driving exta miles for pennies off a gallon of gas. Today I use the gas station on the side of the road that is best for when I need to pull out back into traffic.
I was still standing in supermarkets evaluating which package would have me pay less per ounce, today I buy the size that best fits my needs. Indeed even though I had money, even though I had started to build a second business and even though I was saving for retirement and paying off debt I was still on some level the poor kid from that coal town.
I believe most Americans today are still carrying their own “coal town” poverty mentality with them. It is what makes you limit your dreams one day then the very next day be stupid about how much you spend the next. Believe it or not this poverty consciousness is why people buy 50K dollar cars when one half the price is much better suited to their needs and budget. The expensive do dad makes them feel rich even though they are cash poor it helps them run from the fear or poverty.
On the other side they do things just to be cheap! They buy a 9 dollar garden hose that is kinked and useless in a year. They buy the cheapest refrigerator and it wastes electricity. They think a guy that makes 20K more a year is “rich” until they get there too and then they think the next guy 20K further up the food chain is rich.
This all stems from “poverty consciousness” if you see yourself as poor you will figure out a way to keep yourself poor. If you always look for cheaper, cheaper, cheaper then you will always have the poorest and cheapest things in your life. You will cheapen joy, you will cheapen your personal value and you will cheapen your dreams. Try not to use the word “cheap” as a positive thing.
Save cheap to describe junk. Save cheap to describe bad service. Save cheap to describe a stingy miser. Save cheap for negatives and use terms like “good value” and “excellent price” when you find a lower cost on a good item. This is just one step to removing the poverty demons from your subconscious but it is a good start.
Filed under Wealth & Investing | Comment (1)Advice from the broke is useless
I know this seems so obvious, never take advice on money, investing and business from the broke. The problem is it is not always easy to recognize the “broke”, when I refer to people that are broke I am not saying they live in a “poor house”, make very little money and eat mealy porridge. I simply mean they are broke as in more money goes out that comes in.
Broke people live next door to you, they live in neighborhoods that are both two steps down and two steps up from yours. Broke people are everywhere, most of the people in America are broke by my definition. They are the people in huge 50K dollar SUVs that they justify as being needed “to cart the kids around in”. Jeez, how big are these kids? They have beautiful homes, nice furniture and perhaps even lawn care service. Many have vacation homes or time shares or other true luxuries. How can I call these people broke?
Easy they are broke, they have very little to no surplus cash flow, they save next to nothing other then what perhaps goes automatically into a 401K (Thank God for that at least). They have TVs on credit, cars on credit, pools on credit, some have charged the very paint on their walls and the sofa they sit on. Cut off their income for 30 days and most would loose every thing they have. They are broke because they have no “wealth” only things, stuff and the appearance of wealth.
Such people are always big talkers. They tell you “now is the time to buy” or that “that business deal seems risky” and other wonderful nuggets of advice. They tell you how great that new SUV is, how wonderful owning a plasma TV is and they always have investment advice for you.
My advice is, don’t take their advice. If you follow the advice given by most people it will lead you down the same path they are on. In other words take advice from your uncle who has that beautiful house, nice cars and kids in top schools and you may just get their yourself. Yet you will probably do it “his way” (the normal way) and be in debt up to your eyeballs and working into extended retirement years just to pay the interest on all of it.
So where do you go for advice? To the successful, to the millionaires next door. Look for the guy that pays cash for everything, the woman that has a 6 figure job and a 150,000 dollar house and a sensible car along with a nice savings account, a good team of advisers and a very fat and growing Roth IRA. These people are not “broke” they could go with out work 6 months to a year with just a bit of sacrifice if they had to.
How do you find them? There are many of us, just talk to people and you will know right away.
- The broke talk about how expensive gas is and the wealthy talk about how efficient their cars are.
- The broke think rich people are “over paid” and “thieves” and the wealthy think the rich are “generous” and “admirable”
- The broke shop for “deals” on consumer goods, the wealthy look for “deals” on real estate and investments
- The broke think cars are status symbols and the wealthy think cars are a “necessary expense”
- The broke talk about “saving money” by spending it, the wealth talk about budgeting and investing the savings
Just realize it is not income that separates the broke from the wealthy. In my town I can show you people with a household income of 100K or more that are “broke” and I can show you some with a household income of say 70K that are very “wealthy”.
Just remember this and consider it when anyone advises you how to spend your money, what to buy, how to invest and on what is important or what is safe vs risky. Now I am not saying that no broke person ever gives any decent advice. Sure many times they do, just don’t let the broke counter your instincts or justify what you know to be a mistake for short term gratification.
Filed under Wealth & Investing | Comment (1)Pay the right price for you home
This post is not about setting your budget for a mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc. That is a number you need to come up with before you start even looking for a home. You need to determine what you can afford then follow this golden rule, SPEND LESS then you can afford.
What this post will do is help you find the right home for the right price with in your means. So let’s begin.
First, write down what you want this includes,
- What area you want to live in
- Your price range
- Bedrooms, Bathrooms, Garage, etc
The typical things you are looking for in a home.
Second, start to form your own idea of what is available in your area. Cruise over to Realtor.com and search properties. Drive the neighborhoods you are interested in and get prices on the houses with signs in their yards. Do your home work before you speak to a realtor. Visit new model homes, get pricing on everything. Learn what homes are like just above and below your target budget. If you are going to spend about 150K, then look at homes in the 90-250K range. Learn your market before you even think about spending a penny. Take as long as you need to do this well. Write down homes you could see yourself buying and see how long they take to sell at their price point.
Third, call a few different real estate agents (get referrals if you can). Talk to at least three, tell them exactly what type of home you want to buy, the neighborhoods you want to look it and the schools you want, etc. Be very specific. Tell the agent that you know about the phrase, “buyers are liars” and find it offensive! (I will explain buyers are liars at the end of this article). Then ask the agent what price range you should expect to have to pay to get that type of home.
In other words DO NOT let your agent start the whole interview by asking you what you can afford, you tell an agent you have a 125-150K budget and odds are you will find yourself in a 160K home! Remember you now know your market and you should get a number back from your agent that matches what you already know. Many times the number is much higher and this tells you that your agent is NOT LISTENING TO YOU, they are not understanding you. In many instances they are therefore not right for you.
Never let your agent call the shots control the relationship from the get go. They are experts, they are supposed to know more then you your preshopping will tell you if that is the case. Just because they know more then you does not mean they know what you want. Never let an agent say crap to you like, “you don’t what this” or “you really need to consider paying a bit more”. My accountant knows more then me, my financial advisors do to. Yet they work for me and are employed at my pleasure, I do not let them forget it.
Your agent may want you to sign a buyers agent contract. Never sign one that forces you to buy a home via them, one that protects you from going direct to the seller is fine. So is one that requires that if you buy a house they show you that your work with them on it but stay away from those that want a 180 day exclusive agreements. Explain you will be fair, that you want the right place for the right place and will give them the time they need to get the job done. Yet be clear they work for you and reserve the right to fire them at any time.
Fourth, choose the agent you get along with best that was at least close to the price range you expected to hear when you answered the question. Now take your maximum budget (lets call it 150K but it could be anything based on where you live and your income level, etc) and cut it by 10%! So that would in our example mean down to 135K and now your mission is to find a home that compares well with others selling at 150K. You can ALMOST always do this. Not in every market and not all the time but in most instances you can always find a deal like this.
Fifth, when you find the home you want to buy make your offer at least 10% below the asking price. So on this 135K home you now offer about 123K! All the seller can do is say no, you can always offer more, what do you think is going to happen? Do you think they might be so offended as to raise the price to 180? The only risk is someone else will buy the home. So what you must be willing to walk away from any deal. Most times when you low ball at precisely 10% the agent on the other end “gets it”, they generaly counter offer in the middle some where, you just might get that home worth 150 that is listed at 135 for 130.
There are always deals
Such deals are possible and in fact anyone can get one! I have done it on the last three homes I purchased. I bought one for just 84K and sold it for 109K just two years later with no improvements other then a deck. I bought another for 135 that was appraised at 159 and sold in three years later for a few pennies under 200K.
My latest find was a house easily worth 170 that was listed for 139 and I paid get this 120! How come, the listing agent was an idiot! The home had a second living area, a huge yard (1/3rd of an acre average lots are 1/10th), and a home office. The listing agent listed the house as a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home, brick and vinyl. Nothing more! The guy should have been shot but it was my gain, we offered 115 they countered at 120 and I jumped on it.
The owners were days from having to start paying a second mortgage and I got the place for a song. Honestly there wasn’t another house with all of this going for it under 200K with in 10 miles of it but the buyer had to sell. The house was on a culdesac so it got no drive by traffic and the agent clearly blew the marketing.
So there you go a blueprint for finding the best deal on a home. Will it work in those white hot markets where houses sell in 24 hours? Not usually but generally just outside of those areas there are deals just waiting to be had. Be flexible, consider your options and spend LESS then you can afford. With a little work you can really get a great deal and build a solid investment from day one. Just remember real estate is not a game, you are not in it to be nice or make friends or even help people. You have to be tough, stand your ground and walk away if you need to.
Filed under Personal & Home | Comment (0)Why you should never buy whole life insurance
This is going to be a brief and short post, I am going to put this simply DO NOT EVER purchase whole life, universal life or any other name they ever come up with to try to sell it to you. This has been written on a lot so if you want to know more then I give you here, do a bit of research online and you will find a lot more information to back my suggestion.
Let me be blunt, Life Insurance is for when you die, nothing more and combining it with anything is a mistake. Your life insurance should be about 10 times your annual income if you are supporting a family. The reason for that is simple, 10% returns are quite doable with solid investments so your survivors can invest the proceeds, draw 10% a year and not deplete the money for a very long time. This effectively replaces your income for longer then your working life.
Now to carry that much whole life insurance would be extremely expensive, beyond the budget of most working Americans. An insurance agent will try to show you how whole life builds “cash value” but this is nothing but an illusion.
Remember life insurance pays out when you die! When you live a long time (most of us do) it is good for the Insurance company, you pay and they do not. So when you buy term insurance you pay the amount that very smart economists and math PhD’s have determined will be profitable for the insurance company based on average life expectancy. In other words a fair market price that covers you if you die during the term.
Now look at whole life, you pay a LOT MORE for the same amount of insurance (the risk incurred by the insurer) but the insurance company has the same level of risk. Now if you are a good stooge and pay way to much for way to long, they will then give you some of your money back some day. In the interim they invest your money at market rates of 10-15% returns. So they make that interest, they hold your money and they tell you how great it is that they will give some back.
If you like that how about this. Go get 100,000 dollars, send it to me and I will hold it for you, I will even pay out 2% interest on it. Twenty years from now you can have your 100K back, plus 2% interest per year or you can just let me keep holding it until you die. When you die, I will give the money to who ever you tell me do. Sound like a good deal to you? Of course not! Oh and yea if you ever need the money I will loan your own money to you and you can just pay it back with a bit of interest. Sound like a scam? It’s not you just pay in your 100K in installments and they call it whole life!
So here is what you do, buy the insurance you need on 20 year level term and invest the rest of the money in good solid investments. You make the 7, 10, 12 or 15% depending on your risk tolerance and ability, you retain the ownership and control of your money. If you die in the interim your loved ones are covered, if you live till the end of the term and have invested well then you should not need as much insurance. Perhaps you might buy a bit less for say 10 years and by then if you still need insurance you have done something very wrong.
Don’t let the insurance guy tell you how hard it is for a 70 year old to get insurance! At 70 you don’t need life insurance if you have done a good job of saving and investing. You are not leaving behind a young wife and 3 kids, you just need to be buried. If you can’t save enough money to get yourself put in an box and under six feet of dirt in 70 odd years something is drastically wrong.
I won’t be writing on this subject very often as it is pretty well known and accepted by most good financial professionals today. I just wanted to get it out right away because it is a huge mistake often made by young people who end up in front of a well trained but undereducated insurance agent.
Filed under Personal & Home | Comment (0)