Why cutting interest rates is bad for the economy

Today I installed the contact form plugin for the WordPress blog platform. This is a great plugin that I recommend for anyone using WordPress; any way in just a few moments after adding my contact page, I got my first question. Here it is along with my answer,

“CostCutter, I have seen you do two posts recently stating how great low interest rates are and how anyone looking to refinance or buy is really lucky that rates are so low. I have also seen a lot of people on the T.V. saying that these rate cuts are actually bad. So which is it and why do these guys say low rates are so bad and you say they are so good.”

That is a great question but it assumes that I disagree with the folks saying these rate cuts are bad, actually I agree with them. My posts about low interest rates from today and the coming interest rate cut yesterday do seem to be positive on the rate cuts and they are but only on one dimension. What I am saying is if you need to refinance are are looking to buy a home then the low rates are very good for you as an individual. Therefore you should take advantage of them.

On the other side I actually think that long term these artificial rate cuts are just bad news for the economy. The reality is we have real problems in this nation that sooner or later have to come out. Things like rate cuts and tax cuts with no corresponding spending cuts only delay the eventual recession and every time we delay it we are just making the eventual market correction worse. No one in the government believes they can stop the recession, they just want to soften the landing but my belief and the belief of most economists is they are actually going to make it a much harder landing.

What you have to understand is why cutting interest rates “works” in the first place. The US economy is driven by spending, when spending slows then everything goes down. There are less jobs, less money in the system, less everything. When interest rates are low spending increases because it costs less money to borrow money so you can buy a bigger house, a bigger car, get a better rate on your credit card etc. These cuts cuts in “the prime rate” or how much the government charges your bank to borrow money. The bank of course is not in business for fun they add to the rate and loan money to you so lower prime rate equals lower rates for everyone and in theory more spending.

The problem is this theory only works long term if people are responsible with debt and it won’t help people who are already in the hole. If you are four payments behind on your home you can’t get a refinance loan no matter how low rates go. If you are paying 29% on your credit card your credit sucks and no one is going to give you a low interest one. Our country is in trouble because to many people spent money they can’t pay back and our government has done the same. When we artificially cut rates we simply put more people into more debt. In other words the country goes deeper into the hole and when at some point we are required to crawl out it will be more not less painful.

If this explanation seems oversimplified it isn’t.   In fact I will make it more simple. If your family is in debt and about to go broke and you take your debt of say 200,000 dollars and refinance it to a lower interest rate to reduce your payments it makes the situation better at first. If however, you then grow your debt back to the original payments you could not make then you are in more not less trouble. When our government puts out these low rates and increases personal and business debt in an economy where people are already in the hole it is the same exact thing.

In short I am glad for the responsible consumer that rates are low, I certainly did not want rates risen to higher levels but the reason behind this cut is nothing but a delay that is going to make what is bad already, worse.

Another financial advice website to check out

I was just asked to review a web site called Finance Genius. I have to tell you I like what I saw. Basically the site is an information portal that helps consumers with a combination of advice and what amounts to a brokerage approach in connecting consumer to different options for things like insurance, mortgages, student loans and Auto Warranty services.  With automotive warranties in particular I always advise people to shop outside sources, the extended warranties offered by dealerships tend to be over priced and then simply lumped into your loan so you get to pay interest on it.  My additional advice is wait until your included warranty is almost up before paying for an extended on.  Why pay for a warranty you may not use?

Like any site that is recommending various financial products my advice is to shop what they have and compare it to other options.  Always make sure you find the best deal you can but Financial Genius certainly looks like one of the good guys so if you are in the market for any of their services have a look around their site and see what they have to offer.   Remember my view is debt is bad but when it is necessary get the best deal, with the best terms you can find.  Sites like this one are good tools for finding those types of deals.

Tax rebate checks may be on the way

In an effort to stimulate the economy the congress and the president are working to provide an economic stimulus package. One big part will be sending most tax payers some of their tax money back, to the tune of from 300-800 dollars per taxpayer may be even as high as 1600 per household. You can read an article by newsday.com to get more specifics about it.

In any event I have mixed emotions about this. As a Libertarian I believe that all income tax is theft in the first place and I really can’t argue with the government giving back money they should have never taken in the first place. However, in this instance while not totally opposed (I just can’t oppose less tax no matter how it comes) I have sever very big concerns/issues with this plan.

• Right now everyone is worried about the 2008 election. So even Mr. and Mrs. raise taxes (Barak and Hillary) are behind this massive retroactive tax rebate. Make no mistake this is buying votes by both sides of the isle.

• True conservatives are always saying lower taxes are good for the economy and liberals always say that is wrong. Yet now that we are in deep shit everyone agrees cutting taxes makes the economy better? All this means is they all know all the time that low taxes are good and simply keep up the graduated income tax as a way to distract us all with “class warfare”.

• In most instances I don’t see cutting taxes as “spending” yet in this case it is pure reckless spending. Why? How? Simple, no one in congress is talking about cutting any expenditures to fund this rebate. In other words they are still going to spend all the money they were going to spend and GET THIS our country is OUT OF MONEY. So where will we get the billions to fund this rebate? Well the fed will fire up the presses and just print more money at least symbolically. Honestly though our government will borrow it from foreign governments and increase out debt. In other words you kids get to pay back you debt on your 800 bucks with interest and will have to do so with a dollar that is weaker in the world market every day.

• This package is a very short term fix. The whole theory is most people will “blow” their money and dump it in the economy and that will beef up spending for a bit and put more money into the economy and the rising tide will then float all boats. The theory is sound most people will blow it (instead of saving or paying on debt) and it will make it “better” but our “boat” has big holes in it. Make sense? This move won’t reduce US debt, reduce toxic consumer debt, fix the housing market or reduce our massive spending deficit.

So how could this plan actually work? You only have to change the spending equation on the side of the government to make it work very well. Check this way out,

1. Require the government to give back at least the money they plan to right now.
2. Require that they also cut 2 dollars in spending for every dollar returned to tax payers

That’s it! That would “stimulate the economy”! Our nation is not in trouble because our people spend to little, it is in trouble because the government takes too much of our money and then spends far more then even what they steal from us. Fix that problem, yes cut taxes but cut spending by 2 dollars for every dollar you refund to us.

Taking a dream trip on safari in Africa

One of my someday dreams is to take an extended African hunting safari  vacation and by extended I mean several weeks.  I also keep bouncing around the idea of doing a more conventional 7-11 day trip.    For the big game hunter nothing can compete with Africa on price, service and the amount of game you can see and hunt.

To put it in perspective you can easily spend 6-7 thousand dollars to hunt Elk in Colorado or Wyoming.  For you money you get the chance to shoot one Elk and you get a good chance at not shooting anything.  You will hunt for 7-14 days up and down mountians and if you really push hard you may very well end up with bloody feet.  You will eat decent camp fire chow, sleep in a sleeping bag and have to do a lot for yourself.

Contrast it to Africa when for 5-7 thousand you will see more game then you can imagine, hunt 7-12 days, be waited on hand and foot, fed like a king and have the type of service you might get on a cruise ship.    You will also generally harvest 7-11 bg game animals and end up with trophy’s you will cherish for the rest of your life.    For me it is just a matte of when I am going to make the time to go.

I grew up reading the works of Teddy Roosevelt, Robert Raurk and Peter Capstick and eventually taking a trip to the dark continent will let me see the sites, smell the smells and feel some of what those great writers painted into my mind as I grew up.

One really great website I have found with some exceptional hunts is called T. Jeffrey Safari Company.  If you have ever dreamed of a safari check out there website, excellent packages, great pricing and beautiful images.

When it has to be there now use a courier

Mail is great be it with the post office, UPS or say FedX but what if you need something sent across town, not by tomorrow but before a presentation at noon the mail just doesn’t get the job done.  Or say you need some items taken to the post office but just don’t have the time or resources to get it done right now. Well the solution is simple, use a good courier service.

For those in Connecticut I have a good recommendation try using MDCS who prides themselves on being one of the best Hartford couriers and over all one of the best in the state of Connecticut.  I was asked to check out their website and can tell you they provide outstanding rates, guaranteed service and personalized service you won’t find from a national service.

Many people tend to view a couriers as expensive, I never have. I can either get a currier to take care of a delivery or pay my employee to do it (while he doesn’t do what I really pay him to do) or do it myself and at that time not be taking care of my real business. Last option is to not get something where it needs to be, when it needs to be there.  All of those end up being infinitely more expensive.   So if you need a courier in Connecticut look up MDCS if you are elsewhere then just let your fingers do the walking with your search engine of choice.

A book and the comming recession or depression

I am a pretty upbeat guy so a lot of my friends ask why I am so sure that our economy is in the toilet. The answer is pretty damn simple! We are as a nation in debt way over our heads just at the consumer level, our government is trillions of dollars in debt with China along with a massive trade deficit and on top of that the mortgage and real estate markets are in the hole as well.

Yet my reasons are bigger then that! More because I am a student of history. I really suggest you read a book called The Forgotten Man to learn about how similar both our situation and our governments moronic reaction to it are to the years leading up to and during the great depression. This book is a fascinating and enlightening read.

It is very important for us to understand the history of our welfare state, how so many once proud Americans ended up on “the dole” because the coming problems may cause a worse knee jerk reaction. Always remember once the government creates a tax, a department or a program it never ever goes away. Check out The Forgotten Man today and plan well for the tough times to come.

Consider Northern Trust for Wealth Management

My primary goal here at this blog is to help the average person learn simple ways to build above average wealth. As you begin to build wealth the key is to make sure you have the right wealth management team.  Northern Trust is a premier provider of banking, asset management and asset servicing to affluent families and individuals and leading institutions worldwide.

With a proven track record Norther Trust a company I can recommend with out any hesitation.  They also offer some exception free financial resources.  For more information visit their website and check out the Global Economic Research link.  You work hard for your money and it should be hard at work for you.  It should also be protected because as I have posted about before we have the potential to see a recession that could make 1978 look like the “good old days”.

Now I am no gloom and doom forecaster but it is more then probable right now that we are in for some tough times.  Many entrepreneurs are used to going it alone, I have been guilty of it myself.  Yet when it comes to investing, asset protection and preserving the future of your family’s future alone is a very bad choice.  Rely on professionals and that is what you will find at Northern Trust Banking & Asset Management.

Consider a business coach

You know every great athlete, ever great performer and ever great competitor had a coach. The very best of the best had coaches that helped them to get better. Well did you know that just like pro athletes have sports coaches there are also business coaches that help business owners do a better job at running their companies and managing their time.

There are a lot of advantages to having a coach in your business.  The biggest one to me is that a coach is on the outside, they are not married to your ides, your internal dogma or your internal convictions that what you have always done has been good enough or is the only way.   I was recently asked to take a look at a website for a company called ActionCoach and I must say I was impress with them and their free resources.

One thing you might really want to check out is their Business Health Check, I ran through it and it was quite eye opening to say the least.   Remember it is a new year, time to really make things happen in Q1 so you don’t struggle in Q4.  So consider getting a business coach to help make it happen or if nothing else check out their free resources over at ActionCoach.