More news about gold
I have blogged a lot on gold, silver and other metals thus far because I firmly believe that they represent a great hedge against inflation, a good long term investment and because I feel they offer a lot of protection from the coming recession. So when this article from Forbes hit my RSS Reader this morning I was quick to have a look at it. The article is title, Gold’s Allure Growing, and I recommend you give it at least a quick read.
While I found the article interesting and quite accurate I do feel they sort of glossed over a key reason for gold going up recently and a reason that gold will continue to go up for quite a while. Here was the only mention of this factor in the article,
“Demand for the metal is also strong in Asia, for jewelery and as a store of value.”
That was the only mention of this factor in the entire article and I find this very much missing the boat. Why? Well, because with China and India what we have is more then 2 Billion (with a big B) people who are rapidly growing their middle class and both societies have a tremendous appetite for gold jewelry. I recently read a report on of the foremost expert on gold and mining operations who stated that we currently have “at least a 10% shortfall on the production vs. demand for gold most of which is attributed to the rising demand in India and China for gold jewelry.”
In other words those 2 billion people are buying gold faster then it can be extracted from the ground. The big issue with that is it has never happened before. The demand for gold has always been based on how rare it is and that has always created a demand yet until now anyone could always buy as much as they could afford. Today we have unmeetable demand and the demand is growing faster then the production and again this is the first time in modern history that such a condition has existed in the gold market.
I highly advise any investor (small or large) to have a serious heart to heart conversation with your financial advisers about putting at least 10-20% of your holdings into gold, gold funds, etc. The increased demand and declining dollar together make gold a real winning opportunity at least in my opinion right now.
Filed under Wealth & Investing | Comment (0)A book and the comming recession or depression
I am a pretty upbeat guy so a lot of my friends ask why I am so sure that our economy is in the toilet. The answer is pretty damn simple! We are as a nation in debt way over our heads just at the consumer level, our government is trillions of dollars in debt with China along with a massive trade deficit and on top of that the mortgage and real estate markets are in the hole as well.
Yet my reasons are bigger then that! More because I am a student of history. I really suggest you read a book called The Forgotten Man
It is very important for us to understand the history of our welfare state, how so many once proud Americans ended up on “the dole” because the coming problems may cause a worse knee jerk reaction. Always remember once the government creates a tax, a department or a program it never ever goes away. Check out The Forgotten Man
Double your money in the metal market with no investment
Ok, hold on, don’t get to excited. Indeed I am going to tell you exactly how to get an almost immediate 2 fold return on your money. I am also going to show you how to do it with out spending any money, hiring a broker or even with out doing any paperwork. However, I have to tell you right up front you are not going to get rich with this technique.
In fact this technique is first and foremost fun to do, second it is designed again to program you mind in how you think about words like “money” and “value” and finally last it is about actually making/investing money.
Now that big lump to the left is a chunk of raw copper. Copper has skyrocketed in both price and demand over the last ten years. Copper is used in countless industrial activities and as countries like China, Indonesia and India continue to modernize the demand will continue to grow and often to out pace production capacity. This issue will be compounded by the boom in coal, gold and silver. Consider that you are a mining company and you are choosing where to go and what to do next. You can either mine coal which is far easier then any metal or you can mine silver or gold which is worth far more then copper. Or last you can mine copper which is profitable but if you had the option what would you mine?
Great! So how does this help you double your money with out spending it? The answer is in the humble penny. Currently and since mid 1982 all U.S. pennies are made from mostly zinc with a copper cladding, basically a zinc coin with a very thin layer of copper on the outside. Such pennies are worth damn near nothing from a metal stand point. However, any penny that is older then 1982 is 95% copper and 5% zinc alloy. What does this mean? Let’s do some math.
Step one - When you look at pennies that are made from 1981 back they are heavier then today’s. In fact there are 146 pennies to a pound. Yet we must consider that such pennies are only 95% copper so 1.05 x 146 = 154 pennies make one pound of pure copper.
Step Two - 154 pennies even those from 1981 back are “worth” in currency a whopping $1.54
Step Three - Copper is currently trading at the time of this writing for $2.84 per pound. Hence 154 pennies are “worth” $2.84 in raw copper and copper is a commodity you can actually sell it for very close to the current spot price.
Step Four - Calculation of our return by simply dropping an 1981 or earlier penny into a “special” jar or container is as follows. $2.84 - $1.54 = $1.30 of “profit”. Now take you profit of $1.30 and devide it by your “initial investment” of $1.54 and you have a “instant return of investment” of 84%. Not quite double but as soon as copper goes back over 3 dollars a pound (which analysts believe will be quite soon) and you are at a full 100% return.
We should also consider that copper was trading for about 60-70 cents just 20 years ago and you start to realize just how high your “return” can be if you just start tossing all you pre 82 pennies into a jar for the next twenty years.
This is a great project for adults and kids alike. The bad news is again you are never going to get rich with this and in fact copper will have to go up to say 6 bucks a pound before you will really be able to “cash in” pennies in any real volume. The good news though is there is no doubt that over the years that will happen and because we are talking pennies not many people are making an effort to store away copper pennies.
In 1959 the U.S. stopped making the “wheat cent” and while most of those have been horded away by collectors from 1959 to 1981 100% of pennies produced in the US are 95% copper and virtually no one have really collectively valued them at anything more then one cent. That is 22 years worth of pennies still traveling around in circulation which means their are hundreds of millions of these pennies out there being spent every day. I always drop my pre 82 pennies in a jar and about 1 out of 5 tend to be pre 81’s. Over the years that is a lot of pennies.
So why do this? I mean save 4 dollars a month this way and you make about 4 in return and you have another 400 fricken pennies to deal with right? Short sighted my friend, the key is you don’t do very much to earn that return and most people are making less on their interest bearing savings accounts a month in America. All you do is follow my advice and “spend cash” and each day go through your pennies and drop any 81 or earlier examples into some special container. How much easier can “investing” be?
Just consider if in 10 years you had 15,400 pennies or $154 bucks. Those pennies if copper is at 6 bucks by then will be worth about get this, 600 dollars. Retirement money? Heck no! Just another little store house of money. Additionally while I never get to concerned with numismatic value because of how highly subjective it is there is another opportunity here.
See first let me warn you if you are currently thinking of buying 200,000 or so pennies from a bank, sorting them out and melting the older ones don’t do it! The U.S. Government will frown on that and possibly make you wear some silver bracelets and break a few rocks for a few years. Such activity is illegal for now anyway. Yet as copper keeps going up (and it will) sooner or later the mint will begin to “retire” the old copper. That is a nice way to say they will take the pennies out of circulation and harvest the copper for use. Of course the government is free to do that. This will make a lot of these 60s ad 70s pennies harder to come buy and add some numasmatic value to them as well.
That is many years into the future but let me ask you this. How cool would it have been if say your grandfather started collecting 1964 and earlier silver dimes for you when we stopped making them in 65? For about 10 good years it was easy to pluck silver quarters, dimes and half dollars from circulation. Today it is very rare to find one. I happen to own a huge pile of such coins put away for me by a very smart grandparent. This led to my love of silver in the first place. Today we have the opportunity to start doing something like that for our children, their children and possibly their children’s children. What would 100,000 Indian head pennies be worth today?
There is more at work here though tied to the production of pennies and the metal price. Do you know why 1982 was the year that the penny changed to a zinc core? In the early 80s all metal prices spiked for a while and even then a penny was worth more as copper then as a penny! So zinc was a cheap alternative and coating it in copper kept the penny looking like well, “a penny”.
Today though even zinc is rising in price and it costs about 8/10ths of a cent in raw metal to make a penny. That is before production costs, etc. This means the US Mint is Loosing Money to make pennies. Additionaly so long as people spend cash we can’t get rid of the penny we have to have something in order to make change of a dollar with. I predict therefore that the days of the humble Lincoln cent are numbered! The easy solution is to come up with coin made of something perhaps even cheaper then zinc and make it smaller too.
Since no vending machines take pennies there is no problem with changing the size of the penny. Don’t think it can’t happen either, they did it with the dollar coin. When sooner or later this change occurs it will be another numismatic bump in the value of all pennies and even more so to the all copper variety. So I encourage you to take the phrase, “save your pennies” with a new vision. Start plucking the little copper disks from circulation today and just put them away.
Filed under Personal & Home | Comments (3)The case for investing in gold
Many financial advisers are not very keen on investing in gold because they claim it has a fairly poor record compared to let’s say the S&P Average or the Dow Jones. Indeed a case can be made for this but there is another lesser know case for gold that make you really want to look at putting at least some money in gold. The reality is that the Dow and just about any metric or fund or stock has at some point a 10 year period where it lost money or at least lost to inflation and against gold.
Gold has never gone down over any 10 year period in history except for the early 80s when gold along with silver and other metals were artificially manipulated by the Hunt Brothers and other groups. Smart investors did not buy during that period though, if they were really smart they sold off gold and bought in back in the mid 80s. Those investors did very well.
Now look I am certainly not advising you to put all of your money in gold or to take it all out of solid investments. I am also against any real heavy numismatic investments in gold coins. Yet to put 10-20% of a portfolio into gold or gold stocks or funds makes a lot of sense as a solid investment hedge. Gold has gone up quite a bit in the past five years so many investors are a bit skiddish about buying it at a precieved high. However there are a lot of factors in play right now that will most likely have a positive impact on Gold prices for a long time to come.
- The US Dollar continues to decline and the government seems to want it that way. To understand this factor you need to grasp that gold could stay level in the global market and still go up in dollars, simply because the dollar declines.
- The economies of China and India and other nations are putting more demand on gold as a consumer level commodity. As the middle class of these nations grow more demand for gold jewelry results in more demand for gold in the global market.
- Right now the demand for Gold is about 10% higher then the supply that is being produced.
All of these factors make gold an attractive alternative to conventional investments. Of course you should consult with your financial advisors before you buy, I am just saying have a look at gold as one way to protect yourself against what looks like a coming recession and an ever falling dollar.
Filed under Wealth & Investing | Comment (0)Your job is not secure
Let me be clear I don’t think you have a safe, secure job today if you work even say for the Post Office or even a State Government agency. I believe firmly with the toxicity of debt in both the consumer credit card market and the sub prime lending market a major recession is coming. We won’t die off, no one will jump from tall buildings on Wall Street and the dust bowel is not comming back but there also may no longer be “two chickens in ever pot”. Todays “chickens” are Plasma TVs and other do dads.
Right now there is over 1 Tillion Dollars in toxic debt in the consumer credit market, that is money that will NEVER get paid back. The American tax payer has had enough, we won’t bleed money any more. Social Security is getting to where you as a working member of society have you “own old person” to provide for, it will change and that will be good but short term it will hurt.
The dollar weakens almost daily now! Canada now has a stronger dollar then the US that has never happened. The weak dollar is supposed to help fix the multi trillion dollar trade deficit we have with the world, it does nothing of the sort. The biggest potential export markets for us are China and Japan and both artificially tie their currency to the dollar. When the dollar drops so does the Yen by an equal amount. All a weak dollar does is make your money worth less and less in the global market.
My point is this can’t all just stand as the house of cards it is today and there will come a time soon when some of the bills will have to be paid. When that happens there will not be enough money to pay it. At that point employers are going to feel it hard and tough decisions will have to be made. Your boss might love you but if it comes down to the company surviving and your employment he will have that hard talk with you about some measly severance package. Odds are in many instances he will then get to have the same talk with his boss and so on.
How bad will it be? I do not pretend to know but it will be worse then it is today, that I am sure of. My real point though is it doesn’t really matter does it how many people loose jobs? All that matters to you is if and when you loose yours! It can happen to the best of us, it happened to me and because I live by the things I teach and write about it just wasn’t that big of an issue.
My point is you need to live as though you are currently in the hight of summer. You must buget and make spending choices with the view that you are right now at the peak of your earnings, you must plan for a big decline that can come at any time. This does not mean that you live in fear only that you live free from illusions.
If right now this second you or your spouse lost a job and were unable to replace it quickly how long would your last before you started to go negative on paying your bills. How long till you lost your house or got evicted from your apartment? The average American could scarcely make it 30-60 days! Many are but one or two paychecks from bankruptcy!
How do people get in this position? The belief that a paycheck is an entitlement that’s how. It amazes me how entitled employees tend to be in relation to their employers. Just look at the auto and airline unions, they keep getting more and more from their employers but the problem is the airlines and the car makers no longer can pay the bills. They are putting their very security in jeopardy by always wanting more, more, more.
So what is the solution? - Here are ten things you should be doing starting yesterday.
First - Never see yourself as secure in your job, have a plan B. Always know which competitor or similar company would be best for you to go work for. Cultivate relationships within said company, don’t act like you are ready to switch if you are not but be on the radar.
Second - Build a big network of contacts in your line of work, I don’t care if it is packing boxes or running companies as a CEO. Build network of people around you that can help you if you ever need a new job.
Third - Live below your means! Nothing is more important, make sure you buy less house then you can afford. Buy a cheaper to own and maintain and fuel car that you really have to settle for. In short never buy what you can afford today, buy what you should still be able to afford with far less then you have.
Fourth - If you deep in debt get out now! If have home equity and large credit card debt refinance your house and pay off the cards, then cut them to pieces.
Five - Buy and own a home! Renting has a place but as soon as you can afford to own a home the right way do it. Buy smart, pay less then the house is worth, find a deal, there are always deals. Know this variable rate mortgages are the devil, if you can’t afford the home with a fixed loan, you can’t afford the home!
Six - Build a second income, in other words own your own small business. You know how to do, make or advise on something better then most people. Find a way, anyway to make money with it. Do private consulting, build online income (this is what I do) hell just by blogging you can make 500-1000 dollars a month, (I will show you how in the future). Someway, somehow develop a second and even a third stream of income.
Seven - Save money outside of just your 401K, IRA, etc. The golden rule is get to where you save 10% of your income in an IRA or other tax deffered acocunt. That money is locked away until you retire though. I am all for 10% going to retirement as long as you can save say 15%. If today all you can afford to save is 10% put 5 into a long term locked away account and 5% where you can get to it with out penalty if you need it. Build an emergency fund of at least 90 days of your current income before you lower your savings contributions to liquid accounts.
Eight - Plan on being fired, your company being bought, your job being downsized, etc. It may never happen but plan on it. The very act of viewing such things as a possibility will make you smarter in your decisions every day. It will also make you more level headed and able to stand the hardship if it comes. Again do not live in fear, just follow the boy scout wisdom of “be prepared”.
Nine - Educate yourself in and outside of your current employment niche. When I lost a job about 8 years ago it became an opportunity! I went from Sales Management into online marketing and became very successful. The reason was simple in my sales career I educated myself on how to sell all the time. At the same time I taught myself how to market on and off line. I took my sales knowledge and put it to use online with my new skills. This was my “secondary income” a tiny small business that was making me about 500 dollars a month. I turned it into a new career because I had become a learning sponge. Today I own companies because of this education I gave myself. Be it online, via books, classes, seminars, I don’t care what invest both time and money in educating yourself.
Ten - Be the supreme commander of your own life and destiny. Every day think about how you can do better for yourself, your family and your employer. Your job IS NOT a right, you salary IS NOT an entitlement. Get that into your head right now this second. Would you take a raise if it was enough to damage your companies future? If you can answer that with a yes you should be fired! See yourself as an independent contractor, self employed no matter what your job is about. You should get paid as much as you can with in reason, many are underpaid but many people are also over paid. Work hard enough to be able to demand and expect more.
The key here all goes back to one thing though, no job is secure today. That false belief has put many people into massive debt and financial ruin along with a retirement in poverty. Sure this post was an ass kicking but most of America needs one from time to time.
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