Building Wealth - Cutting Costs

I have blogged a lot on gold, silver and other metals thus far because I firmly believe that they represent a great hedge against inflation, a good long term investment and because I feel they offer a lot of protection from the coming recession. So when this article from Forbes hit my RSS Reader this morning I was quick to have a look at it. The article is title, Gold’s Allure Growing, and I recommend you give it at least a quick read.

While I found the article interesting and quite accurate I do feel they sort of glossed over a key reason for gold going up recently and a reason that gold will continue to go up for quite a while. Here was the only mention of this factor in the article,

“Demand for the metal is also strong in Asia, for jewelery and as a store of value.”

That was the only mention of this factor in the entire article and I find this very much missing the boat. Why? Well, because with China and India what we have is more then 2 Billion (with a big B) people who are rapidly growing their middle class and both societies have a tremendous appetite for gold jewelry. I recently read a report on of the foremost expert on gold and mining operations who stated that we currently have “at least a 10% shortfall on the production vs. demand for gold most of which is attributed to the rising demand in India and China for gold jewelry.”

In other words those 2 billion people are buying gold faster then it can be extracted from the ground. The big issue with that is it has never happened before. The demand for gold has always been based on how rare it is and that has always created a demand yet until now anyone could always buy as much as they could afford. Today we have unmeetable demand and the demand is growing faster then the production and again this is the first time in modern history that such a condition has existed in the gold market.

I highly advise any investor (small or large) to have a serious heart to heart conversation with your financial advisers about putting at least 10-20% of your holdings into gold, gold funds, etc. The increased demand and declining dollar together make gold a real winning opportunity at least in my opinion right now.

Today I installed the contact form plugin for the WordPress blog platform. This is a great plugin that I recommend for anyone using WordPress; any way in just a few moments after adding my contact page, I got my first question. Here it is along with my answer,

“CostCutter, I have seen you do two posts recently stating how great low interest rates are and how anyone looking to refinance or buy is really lucky that rates are so low. I have also seen a lot of people on the T.V. saying that these rate cuts are actually bad. So which is it and why do these guys say low rates are so bad and you say they are so good.”

That is a great question but it assumes that I disagree with the folks saying these rate cuts are bad, actually I agree with them. My posts about low interest rates from today and the coming interest rate cut yesterday do seem to be positive on the rate cuts and they are but only on one dimension. What I am saying is if you need to refinance are are looking to buy a home then the low rates are very good for you as an individual. Therefore you should take advantage of them.

On the other side I actually think that long term these artificial rate cuts are just bad news for the economy. The reality is we have real problems in this nation that sooner or later have to come out. Things like rate cuts and tax cuts with no corresponding spending cuts only delay the eventual recession and every time we delay it we are just making the eventual market correction worse. No one in the government believes they can stop the recession, they just want to soften the landing but my belief and the belief of most economists is they are actually going to make it a much harder landing.

What you have to understand is why cutting interest rates “works” in the first place. The US economy is driven by spending, when spending slows then everything goes down. There are less jobs, less money in the system, less everything. When interest rates are low spending increases because it costs less money to borrow money so you can buy a bigger house, a bigger car, get a better rate on your credit card etc. These cuts cuts in “the prime rate” or how much the government charges your bank to borrow money. The bank of course is not in business for fun they add to the rate and loan money to you so lower prime rate equals lower rates for everyone and in theory more spending.

The problem is this theory only works long term if people are responsible with debt and it won’t help people who are already in the hole. If you are four payments behind on your home you can’t get a refinance loan no matter how low rates go. If you are paying 29% on your credit card your credit sucks and no one is going to give you a low interest one. Our country is in trouble because to many people spent money they can’t pay back and our government has done the same. When we artificially cut rates we simply put more people into more debt. In other words the country goes deeper into the hole and when at some point we are required to crawl out it will be more not less painful.

If this explanation seems oversimplified it isn’t.   In fact I will make it more simple. If your family is in debt and about to go broke and you take your debt of say 200,000 dollars and refinance it to a lower interest rate to reduce your payments it makes the situation better at first. If however, you then grow your debt back to the original payments you could not make then you are in more not less trouble. When our government puts out these low rates and increases personal and business debt in an economy where people are already in the hole it is the same exact thing.

In short I am glad for the responsible consumer that rates are low, I certainly did not want rates risen to higher levels but the reason behind this cut is nothing but a delay that is going to make what is bad already, worse.

Just yesterday I suggest looking into refinancing your home while rates are down and I also stated another rate cut was on the way, to wait for it and jump on it when it came.  24 hours later here we are, the market took a 400 point dump when it opened, the Fed panicked and cut rates before the end of the month meeting just as I said they would.    This is not an I told you so post though just another nudge to get going with a refinance if you are paying to much in interest, if you can make a smart move to pay off consumer debt (credit card debt) or if you were stupid and got into an ARM that will soon expire.

Right now I am finding rates are low a 5.125% on a 30 year fixed and todays cut is not even factored in yet.  Odds are you can get something in the 4.75-5.2% range with any type of decent credit assuming you have some equity in your home.  I don’t think you will see a better time in the next few years or perhaps the next decade.  Is this the absolute bottom for rates?  Who knows but it won’t get much better, my advice is to act now.

Also don’t fall for all the advertisements.  The best source to refinance a loan is most often your existing lender.  No one wants to loose a good mortgage client right now.  Last time I did a refinance I got all fees waived by my existing lender.  Remember if you don’t ask they generally won’t tell,  learn and use the phrase “is that the best you can do?” often.

Let me be clear that I think the continued suppression of interest rates by The Fed is a mistake.    All I believe is going to happen is more delay to the recession/depression we have to go through and right now delay simply means when it fully hits it will be worse due to the delay.

That doesn’t mean you can’t be smart and benefit from this.  If your interest rate is more then 3/4s of a point then current rates odds are in about a week or so you will get the chance to shave a point or more off it.  The Fed seems committed to yet another cut either in the next few days or at the end of the money the next time they meet.   I have the following advice for people in different categories.

1.  If your rate is above 6 percent odds are you can cut your payment a significant amount with a refinance in the next few weeks.  If you have the credit to qualify and if it saves you money, do it.

2.  If you have decent equity in your home 30-60K or more and if you owe 10-20k in consumer debt and if your rate is at, near or above 6 percent you may have the opportunity to refinance, pay off your debt and pay LESS or very little more each month on your house payment.  If so and if you are willing to cut up the credit cards you pay off, do it and do it now.

3.  If you were a dumb ass and got into a sub prime or adjustable loan see what you can do to get a conventional 30 year FIXED rate loan now.  There probably will not be a better time for a while.  As soon as even a hint of rebound in home sales come these rates will not be held so low any longer.

I am not a massive fan of cash out refinance for paying off other debts.  Many times this is something that gets abused.  If you plan to take this approach again it is necessary to make sure you get rid of that credit card that got you in the hole in the first place.  Yet there is no question that debt on housing is better then debt on credit cards.  I honestly believe for the home owner with equity, good credit and some unsecured debt this may be the best opportunity in a long time to consolidate bad debt into not so bad debt.  If you do it, look at it like a “stay of execution” and commit yourself to a renewed quest toward financial freedom.

Right now all we seem to hear about in any economic news is the subprime meltdown and how it is responsible for everything. Now the sub prime meltdown is bad but it is also misunderstood in both cause and effect. Let’s look briefly at both sides

The Cause - Everyone wants to blame the lenders for this. To me they get say 20-40% of the blame at most, sure they were stupid and sure it is biting them in the ass right now, as it should but they are not the real ones to blame. Our nation is so fixated on passing the buck and not actually blaming the person who is guilty our grandparents may not recognize our nation if they were with us today.

So who should get the blame for taking rapidly accelerating ARMs, hybrid mortgage loans and borrowing to the absolute limits of their budgets? Doesn’t really take a genius to figure it out does it? The people that took out mortgages that were too high or had bad terms are to blame. That is your fellow Americans and or you yourself if you took out these loans. It is so ever loving easy to blame corporate America but in the end if you borrow money and can’t or don’t repay it the blame is on you, not the company that loaned you the money.

The Effect - The news about the subprime market makes me think of El Niño. Remember El Niño the weather pattern back in the 90s that we blamed for everything. To me that is the sub prime meltdown today. A stock goes down, blame the sub prime lenders. A company lays off workers blame the sub prime market. To many illegal aliens are crushing our educational and health care systems, blame it on the subprime market. Our nation has over spent and is in a 58 trillion dollar hole just for social security alone, blame it on….OK you get the point.

The reality is the subprime bust is bad, very bad but it is also being used as an excuse for other problems in the market. Even the lenders are probably more effected by toxic unsecured (credit card) debt then bad sub prime loans. Yet make no mistake lending institutions are going to loose an estimated 300-400 billion or more before the whole thing comes to an end. Some banks will get bought by other banks, some will flat out shut down and all and all this is going to be another reason for the coming recession or more accurately depression.

Yet when it hits don’t let the talking heads on the idiot box tell you it all because of the greedy sub prime lenders First they are taking a bath you would not believe right now and getting what they deserve, lost money and some going under. Next the real reason for our recession is the US Government is spending far more money then we have and has been for 35 years, the bills are coming due.

So what can you do about all this?

First I advise you to read my post from yesterday about the overall weakness in the economy and watch the video with Comptroller General David Walker to get some specific understanding of what our real problems are and to learn some ways you can protect your assets.

Second I recommend you visit MorCap Fund Advisors, LLC and read their excellent article on the subprime meltdown to better understand it and its’ impact our our economy.

OK the other day I made a series of predictions on the New Hampshire primary in my what are you doing in 2008 post. Some I got right, some I got very wrong. Lets review….

Republican side

1. Rudy does awful and everyone says it doesn’t matter. - Got it dead on!

2. John McCain wins and his national numbers rock because people are lemmings. - Got it dead on!

3. Mitt Romney does OK and comes in second and they say it is over for him. - Got it sort of, Romney did come in 2nd but the media has held off saying his campaign is over. - Where I went wrong, the republican base stayed with Romney in New Hampshire and only a 4 to 1 break for McCain in independents that voted republican gave McCain the victory. I am not sorry about being wrong here, Romney to me is a much better choice then McCain.

4. Ron Paul does far better then the 8% the polls say he can expect. Comes in third and gets ignored again. - I was wrong he got almost exactly 8% which still put him right in the mix with the other candidates but he did not do as well as I predicted. He did however, largely get ignored by everyone but Fox News. Why? Backlash for the debate the excluded Ron from! Where did I go wrong? I gave the concept of freedom in the minds of New Hampshire voters to much credit. Honestly this concerns me for our nation.

There were really 6 predictions there I got 4 of 6. Not all that bad and I don’t pretend to understand New Hampshire primary voters.

On the Democrat Side

1. Barock wins by 10% - Wrong and the rest of my predictions hinged upon this. Barock lost, I was wrong.

2. Hillary gets slammed and the media runs to her defense. - Wrong, clearly missing number one blew this for me. This is another place I am happy to be wrong. I don’t want Hillary but I think she is easier to be for any republican and her economics while disastrous for the U.S. economy are still better then Obama’s.

3. Edwards does ok in 3rd but the media talks about how that is “hope for his campaign” even though there are only four Democrats in the race. Idiots. - Got it spot on but this was no real big prediction.

4. Bill Richardson gets a clue and drops out. - Another easy one and Bill is “making an announcement at a press conference today”, wanna guess what he is going to be saying.

So how did I blow it so bad expecting Obama to slam Hillary? I commited a cardinal sin and believed the polls with out knowing more about the landscape of democrats and democrat voting independents in New Hampshire. I must admit I am not strong when it comes to understanding how liberals think, like Michael Savage I believe, “liberalism is a mental disorder”.

Well South Carolina is the next place everyone will really be looking at. On the Democrats I am not ready to pick a winner but I do think it is do or die for Edwards. On the republican side look for a shoot out between Mike Hukabee and Fred Thompson. I will make some predictions and go on the line with them in another few days.

In the future I will discuss many specific ways that you can make money online. Remember key to our philosophy here at cut that bill is not just reducing expenses but keeping more of your money, investing it wisely and most importantly increasing your cash flow in to your household or business. There is quite simply no easier or more passive way to earn some additional money today then to do it online.

Let me be clear though, “how to do it”, is irrelevant until you get your head around the why and until you grasp how a very “small success” can drastically change your future. Let’s take three very doable numbers and consider how they could impact your life to really grasp how powerful an additional income stream from the internet can be. These figures are

• $100
• $250
• $500

Now trust me making these types of additional monthly income figures is very doable for just about anyone with a willingness to do some investing, learning and work. You will have to work harder in the beginning but such is life. Again though for now let’s stick to why you should and what it can mean. What do each of these figures mean to you,

An extra $100 dollars a month can smash 1200 dollars of out standing additional debt a year which is a good start. Paying off 1200 dollars in additional credit card or other high interest debt actually saves about 5000 dollars of long term interest if it is applied on top of your existing payments. Add 100 dollars to a typical house payment on say a 120,000 dollar mortgage and it can shave GET THIS almost 5 years off a 30 year loan. Invested at 10% and just put away it will add a quarter million to your retirement in 30 years, do it for 40 years and it is now worth about 600K added to your golden years. Remember that is only 100 dollars a month more!

An extra $250 is a lot more powerful as you might imagine, with investing you don’t just get 2.5 times the effect as compounding creates an exponential increase. Invested over 40 years of your working life that 250 dollars a month turns into over 1.5 million at simple 10% interest. Of course you can do much better then that with some creativity and participation in your financial planning. Turn to debt and you can pay down an addition 3000 dollars in debt annually which can save many in credit card debt over 20,000 dollars over the live of debt!

Step up to an additional $500 in income into your monthly cash flow and you can begin to really make a massive impact. Try 6000 dollars in additional debt destroyed per year. This alone would destroy the average of 20K in consumer debt most middle income Americans are living under in just over three years. Get out of that type of debt in three years or less and you can save massive amounts of interest. Investing gets interesting, 30 years of 500 a month at 12% interest equals GET THIS over 5 million dollars. There is even more power though!

500 a month would allow you to buy a modest second home if you wanted for vacations in some beautiful part of rural America. Don’t believe me? Fine I own a beautiful modest second home in an somewhat tourist area of the South up in the beautiful Ozarks. The place sits on 5 acres, is 15 minutes to town, 20 minutes to a beautiful lake and only about 10 people live all the dead end road the place is located on. Everyone owns at least 5 acres so the houses are very spaced apart. My total payment? With taxes and insurance 523 dollars a month. How I just looked hard enough.

Now the real beauty here is what I call my “Plan B”. Let’s say that my companies all go bust, I can’t find a job and my wifes income all of the sudden can’t cover our bills at our primary residence. Now this is not to say that everyone should invest extra income in a second/vacation home, it just begins to open your mind to the types of things you can do to build and preserve wealth with just a few hundred extra dollars of income a month.