More news about gold

I have blogged a lot on gold, silver and other metals thus far because I firmly believe that they represent a great hedge against inflation, a good long term investment and because I feel they offer a lot of protection from the coming recession. So when this article from Forbes hit my RSS Reader this morning I was quick to have a look at it. The article is title, Gold’s Allure Growing, and I recommend you give it at least a quick read.

While I found the article interesting and quite accurate I do feel they sort of glossed over a key reason for gold going up recently and a reason that gold will continue to go up for quite a while. Here was the only mention of this factor in the article,

“Demand for the metal is also strong in Asia, for jewelery and as a store of value.”

That was the only mention of this factor in the entire article and I find this very much missing the boat. Why? Well, because with China and India what we have is more then 2 Billion (with a big B) people who are rapidly growing their middle class and both societies have a tremendous appetite for gold jewelry. I recently read a report on of the foremost expert on gold and mining operations who stated that we currently have “at least a 10% shortfall on the production vs. demand for gold most of which is attributed to the rising demand in India and China for gold jewelry.”

In other words those 2 billion people are buying gold faster then it can be extracted from the ground. The big issue with that is it has never happened before. The demand for gold has always been based on how rare it is and that has always created a demand yet until now anyone could always buy as much as they could afford. Today we have unmeetable demand and the demand is growing faster then the production and again this is the first time in modern history that such a condition has existed in the gold market.

I highly advise any investor (small or large) to have a serious heart to heart conversation with your financial advisers about putting at least 10-20% of your holdings into gold, gold funds, etc. The increased demand and declining dollar together make gold a real winning opportunity at least in my opinion right now.

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How bad is it for our economy

I am not a gloom and doom type but I do believe in being prepared and I also don’t believe in just letting your money sit and wait in mutual funds and stocks when a clear bad time is on the way.   If I were you and I had my money in conventional US Stocks I would get out and do it now.

How bad is it really? I invite you to listen to this interview on the Glenn Beck show with Comptroller General David Walker. This should scare the hell out of you. You will learn how bad the pending social security nightmare really is.   Honestly we are “bankrupt” as a nation.

If you add this to the mortgage problems and our other weaknesses we are in real trouble.

So where would I put my money or more accurately where is my money going?

• First I am putting a good chunk into 2 year Australian Bonds at a guaranteed rate of 7.5% plus any gains as the dollar further weakens.
• Second Gold is a good hedge that has done very well, I will buy more and my only regret is that I did not buy more in the past.
• Third hold cash and possibly in the form or foreign currency such as in a United Kingdom or Canadian bank perhaps even buy bonds in some other forigne markets. Right not as I mentioned above Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK are all in great shape financially.

I don’t want to sound un American here at all but the simple fact is we are in over our heads for more then 58 trillion dollars and we have zero.   Again listen to the interview with David Walker, this man has no political axe to grind and he is the chief accountant for the United States government.   His message is simple, we are out of money.

So my advice is protect your hard earned dollars by converting them into something other then dollars.  Perhaps not all of them but pick a percentage and diversify before this bad problem gets a lot worse.

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More on investing in copper pennies

Heck why not one more post about pennies. Yesterday I did a pretty long post extolling the virtues of pre 82 pennies as a simple and small investment. Again I want to restate this isn’t a “way to get rich” but it is a really cool and fun little inflation hedge and about as risk free and low cost as any form of investing has a right to be.

Anyway I found a really cool little resource that reinforces my point that 95% copper pennies that are still in circulation are a pretty hot little item to set aside right now.

The site is called CoinFlation and I have put it into my book marks so I can always find it in the future. One of the coolest tools is a coin melt value calculator that tells you the exact value of coins when you melt them down. They have two calculators one for silver coins (pre 65 dimes, quarters, halves, etc) and one for coins currently in circulation. To give you an idea of how “valuable” pennies made prior to 1982 are. I decided to run all the comparisons at a 100 dollar face value. So lets look at some of the out of circulation silver coins that you can’t find today out side of a coin shop, some of today’s other coins and their “real value” and then compare them to the humble copper penny. Of course this is “raw

• 100 dollars face value of silver dimes, silver quarters or silver half dollars is worth $1017.81 at today’s current metal prices. They are all the same because each represented a fraction of an ounce of silver as in 1/10th, 1/4th, 1/2 ounce etc. So these coins represent about a 917% return of investment just in metal value for those who had the forsight to pull them from circulation in the 60s, 70s and for a bit of the 80s when they were still around.

• Now if you took 100 dollars worth of today’s quarters you end up with about $18.33 in raw metal value or an 81.7% “instant loss”.

• How about 100 dollars worth of today’s pennies (anything minted after 1982) you get a whopping $58.80 in raw value or a 41.2% “instant loss”.

• What about 100 dollars worth of Kennedy Half Dollars? Everyone loves those right? Same formula as the modern quarter. Melt em down and you get $18.33 in raw metal value or an 81.7% “instant loss”.

• What about the nickel? There is a lot of copper in a nickel and it is a thick coin so it does ok. Try a raw value of $113.75 or an instant return on investment of 13.7% Perhaps storing nickels ain’t a bad idea either?

So how does our humble penny add up against all this? Today’s metal prices for copper and zinc put the value of 100 dollars in pre 82 pennies in raw metal at $193.61. That is easy math an instant ROI of 93.61%! Sure the penny isn’t currently holding pace with those old silver coins and it will never catch up to them. As copper goes up you can bet silver will to. Yet that is my point you can’t just go around picking up a dozen silver dimes a day any more but you can pick up a good amount of pennies from prior to 82.

Sure even with copper at say 5 - 6 dollars a pound you would need a lot of pennies to be worth even say 10,000 dollars. Yet just think about it, each day you sort and toss some into a jar. Painless and foolproof, what do you have to loose other then a bit of space?

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The reason I invest in silver coins

I have already written a bit about my affinity in my post, What I Blow Money On, but today as a follow up to my article on investing in gold it seems like a good time to talk a bit more about precious metals before we move on. In addition I am going to provide you some of my own rules on buying silver coins.

First let me lay out my case for why silver is a good investment. Simply put all metal commodities are doing very well right now and will continue to do so. Heck even copper is getting rather expensive. Back in the 80s I remember copper going for about 70 cents a pound. Today it is hovering in the range of 2.80-3.00!

Many people see silver as a “poor man’s gold” and I think that is rather short sighted. First I don’t care if silver is ounce for ounce far cheaper then gold if you have 1000 dollars worth of gold or 1000 dollars worth of silver you are holding the same value. Now silver and gold are true brothers in my opinion and the price of one is indeed tied to the price of the other. While they are not completely pinned to one another and the Hunt Brothers debacle will skew numbers from the 80s and early 90s there is a strong correlation (precentage wise) to movements between the two. To get an idea of the correlation look at the two graphs below which cover 1997-2007…

As you can see again while not lock step with each other the two metals perform very closely to each other on the open market.

So why not just buy gold? Understand I am not saying to not buy gold it is just that I truly “invest in gold” I buy through my broker and I buy both actual gold, gold funds and stock in gold companies. I have nothing against doing the same with silver but I prefer to actually buy, hold, touch and own my silver mostly in the form of coins.

Why? Two answers….

First, because I love silver coins, they are history, they are beautiful and they are something material to me that I can look at and appreciate. In this way Silver Coins offer me something that 95% of my other investments can’t. Sure I can look at my stock certificates but there isn’t much fun in that. Most of my other investments are just numbers on paper then don’t have the feel, look and glitter of my coins.

Second, because investing in many different things and in many different methods creates diversity. The beauty of silver coins (at least of the type I purchase) have most of their value in the silver basis price. I can “cash in” anytime I want and do so with no paper work or government red tape. I can literally walk into a shop, sell my coins and walk out. Holding silver coins is like holding cash money with out the cancer of inflation upon it.

So what rules to I have for investing in silver? Here they are but understand these are no ones rules but my own. A few you really should follow but others are more about your risk tolerance and your personal view about numismatic values.

1. I do not belong to nor do I buy my silver in any kind of “club” or any highly advertised coin supplier. In particular Littleton Coins is among the worse places of all to buy coins. Their prices are generally 40-90% higher then local coin shops in my area. I buy from local merchants or only via mail order if the price is as good or better then local pricing.

2. Directly related to the above, I am not on any type of auto shipping or monthly arranged purchases. I buy what I want as I find it and as I want it. My silver investments are truely incremental investments outside of my conventional portfolio.

3. I never buy “junk silver coins” which are large unknown lots of mostly 1960s and older dimes and quarters. Most are worn so badly you can scarcely read the dates.

4. While I don’t buy junk coins I also don’t buy highly numismatic valued coins. In other words I never buy a coin where the bulk of the coins value is based on how “collectible” or “rare” it is. Such values are highly subjective and only represent a “real value” if you can find a buyer. Try buying a 200 dollar silver dollar this week and see what the same shop will pay you for it (with out a big jump in price) the following week. This is the one rule that I understand when others break, this is my personal preference but I have my reasons.

5. What I do buy are Silver American eagles as they are priced right about bullion prices. I also buy high quality but common Franklin, Kennedy and Walking Liberty Half dollars which are still quite affordable and made of 90% pure silver. My other big favorites are the more common Morgan and Peace dollars. These coins to me represent a nice mix and all are very affordable and most importantly highly tied in value to the silver basis.

So what is my advice? Well I think it makes a lot of sense to buy some silver over the years and just have it as a hedge against inflation not to mention an investment that remain liquid in both the best and worst of times. The beauty is you can buy say a 10-20 dollar coin just once or twice a month if you don’t have a lot of extra money to invest. Even that over the years can build a nice collection and a lot of real value. I personally buy between 20-150 dollars a month of silver and have been doing so since 1995. As you can see by the graphs in this article that has been a very good move.

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The case for investing in gold

Many financial advisers are not very keen on investing in gold because they claim it has a fairly poor record compared to let’s say the S&P Average or the Dow Jones. Indeed a case can be made for this but there is another lesser know case for gold that make you really want to look at putting at least some money in gold. The reality is that the Dow and just about any metric or fund or stock has at some point a 10 year period where it lost money or at least lost to inflation and against gold.

Gold has never gone down over any 10 year period in history except for the early 80s when gold along with silver and other metals were artificially manipulated by the Hunt Brothers and other groups. Smart investors did not buy during that period though, if they were really smart they sold off gold and bought in back in the mid 80s.  Those investors did very well.

Now look I am certainly not advising you to put all of your money in gold or to take it all out of solid investments.  I am also against any real heavy numismatic investments in gold coins.  Yet to put 10-20% of a portfolio into gold or gold stocks or funds makes a lot of sense as a solid investment hedge.   Gold has gone up quite a bit in the past five years so many investors are a bit skiddish about buying it at a precieved high.  However there are a lot of factors in play right now that will most likely have a positive impact on Gold prices for a long time to come.

• The US Dollar continues to decline and the government seems to want it that way.   To understand this factor you need to grasp that gold could stay level in the global market and still go up in dollars, simply because the dollar declines.
• The economies of China and India and other nations are putting more demand on gold as a consumer level commodity.  As the middle class of these nations grow more demand for gold jewelry results in more demand for gold in the global market.
• Right now the demand for Gold is about 10% higher then the supply that is being produced.

All of these factors make gold an attractive alternative to conventional investments.  Of course you should consult with your financial advisors before you buy, I am just saying have a look at gold as one way to protect yourself against what looks like a coming recession and an ever falling dollar.

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