Building Wealth - Cutting Costs

I have blogged a lot on gold, silver and other metals thus far because I firmly believe that they represent a great hedge against inflation, a good long term investment and because I feel they offer a lot of protection from the coming recession. So when this article from Forbes hit my RSS Reader this morning I was quick to have a look at it. The article is title, Gold’s Allure Growing, and I recommend you give it at least a quick read.

While I found the article interesting and quite accurate I do feel they sort of glossed over a key reason for gold going up recently and a reason that gold will continue to go up for quite a while. Here was the only mention of this factor in the article,

“Demand for the metal is also strong in Asia, for jewelery and as a store of value.”

That was the only mention of this factor in the entire article and I find this very much missing the boat. Why? Well, because with China and India what we have is more then 2 Billion (with a big B) people who are rapidly growing their middle class and both societies have a tremendous appetite for gold jewelry. I recently read a report on of the foremost expert on gold and mining operations who stated that we currently have “at least a 10% shortfall on the production vs. demand for gold most of which is attributed to the rising demand in India and China for gold jewelry.”

In other words those 2 billion people are buying gold faster then it can be extracted from the ground. The big issue with that is it has never happened before. The demand for gold has always been based on how rare it is and that has always created a demand yet until now anyone could always buy as much as they could afford. Today we have unmeetable demand and the demand is growing faster then the production and again this is the first time in modern history that such a condition has existed in the gold market.

I highly advise any investor (small or large) to have a serious heart to heart conversation with your financial advisers about putting at least 10-20% of your holdings into gold, gold funds, etc. The increased demand and declining dollar together make gold a real winning opportunity at least in my opinion right now.

Well if you did not start a refinancing process when I suggested it before you may want to hold a few more days for a bit lower of a rate. Everyone is expecting yet another slashing of the prime rate after the Fed’s meeting at the end of this month. I don’t predict another big cut and while the media is using the term “slash” I think we will see perhaps another 1/8th - 1/4th. That won’t mean a ton more then the last cut already meant but it will make a difference to some who are on the “edge” of making mortgage refinancing a good decision.

To me the real opportunity here is for real estate investing. Loans are lower then any time in history and houses are sitting by the butt load. Right now is a great time to find an incredible deal on investment property. It is however not a time to be stupid and go into highly leveraged deals. What you are looking for right now is a property at 10-20% under even the current depressed value, a property that you can afford to have for a year to 18 months with out a tenant and still have no financial grief.

This is a big part of why the rich always get richer. If you are in good shape money wise right now and can afford 1-3 small properties in this fashion you stand to make very big investing returns in the next 5 years. If however, you are dead broke or swimming in debt you just have to sit back and watch all these great deals sit. This is a very bad time to be in the property flipping business. With the massive inventory out there, suppressed market and probably a 2 year recession ahead it is a great time to be buying the best deals you can find and afford, holding on to them and renting them as you can.

This is exactly why I always say the reason to build wealth in many ways is to live good in bad times.

I was recently asked to have a look at a website for a company called, Willis Consulting Inc, they specialize in financial job placement and while the news reporters keep talking about gloom and doom now may be one of the best opportunities for top financial minds from an employment view point.    You see when money is tight, when profits are down and when recessions hit hard it is the financial expert that turns a company around or keeps it from entering decline in the first place.

Even during the worst economic times there are companies that thrive and excel.   In such times even while laying off parts of their workforce many companies still pay top dollar for bright financial minds because when the chips are down they are needed more then ever.

If I were ever to consider myself “employable” again I would certainly utilize an executive recruiting firm.    If you are really good at what you do emailing resumes and searching job boards is a total waste of time.    My career advice for anyone looking for new opportunities is find a good recruiter, someone you trust and who can do a good job and put them to work marketing you.    If you happen to be a top financial minds this may be one of the best times in recent history to do just that.

I am a pretty upbeat guy so a lot of my friends ask why I am so sure that our economy is in the toilet. The answer is pretty damn simple! We are as a nation in debt way over our heads just at the consumer level, our government is trillions of dollars in debt with China along with a massive trade deficit and on top of that the mortgage and real estate markets are in the hole as well.

Yet my reasons are bigger then that! More because I am a student of history. I really suggest you read a book called The Forgotten Man to learn about how similar both our situation and our governments moronic reaction to it are to the years leading up to and during the great depression. This book is a fascinating and enlightening read.

It is very important for us to understand the history of our welfare state, how so many once proud Americans ended up on “the dole” because the coming problems may cause a worse knee jerk reaction. Always remember once the government creates a tax, a department or a program it never ever goes away. Check out The Forgotten Man today and plan well for the tough times to come.

I have already written a bit about my affinity in my post, What I Blow Money On, but today as a follow up to my article on investing in gold it seems like a good time to talk a bit more about precious metals before we move on. In addition I am going to provide you some of my own rules on buying silver coins.

First let me lay out my case for why silver is a good investment. Simply put all metal commodities are doing very well right now and will continue to do so. Heck even copper is getting rather expensive. Back in the 80s I remember copper going for about 70 cents a pound. Today it is hovering in the range of 2.80-3.00!

Many people see silver as a “poor man’s gold” and I think that is rather short sighted. First I don’t care if silver is ounce for ounce far cheaper then gold if you have 1000 dollars worth of gold or 1000 dollars worth of silver you are holding the same value. Now silver and gold are true brothers in my opinion and the price of one is indeed tied to the price of the other. While they are not completely pinned to one another and the Hunt Brothers debacle will skew numbers from the 80s and early 90s there is a strong correlation (precentage wise) to movements between the two. To get an idea of the correlation look at the two graphs below which cover 1997-2007…

As you can see again while not lock step with each other the two metals perform very closely to each other on the open market.

So why not just buy gold? Understand I am not saying to not buy gold it is just that I truly “invest in gold” I buy through my broker and I buy both actual gold, gold funds and stock in gold companies. I have nothing against doing the same with silver but I prefer to actually buy, hold, touch and own my silver mostly in the form of coins.

Why? Two answers….

First, because I love silver coins, they are history, they are beautiful and they are something material to me that I can look at and appreciate. In this way Silver Coins offer me something that 95% of my other investments can’t. Sure I can look at my stock certificates but there isn’t much fun in that. Most of my other investments are just numbers on paper then don’t have the feel, look and glitter of my coins.

Second, because investing in many different things and in many different methods creates diversity. The beauty of silver coins (at least of the type I purchase) have most of their value in the silver basis price. I can “cash in” anytime I want and do so with no paper work or government red tape. I can literally walk into a shop, sell my coins and walk out. Holding silver coins is like holding cash money with out the cancer of inflation upon it.

So what rules to I have for investing in silver? Here they are but understand these are no ones rules but my own. A few you really should follow but others are more about your risk tolerance and your personal view about numismatic values.

1. I do not belong to nor do I buy my silver in any kind of “club” or any highly advertised coin supplier. In particular Littleton Coins is among the worse places of all to buy coins. Their prices are generally 40-90% higher then local coin shops in my area. I buy from local merchants or only via mail order if the price is as good or better then local pricing.

2. Directly related to the above, I am not on any type of auto shipping or monthly arranged purchases. I buy what I want as I find it and as I want it. My silver investments are truely incremental investments outside of my conventional portfolio.

3. I never buy “junk silver coins” which are large unknown lots of mostly 1960s and older dimes and quarters. Most are worn so badly you can scarcely read the dates.

4. While I don’t buy junk coins I also don’t buy highly numismatic valued coins. In other words I never buy a coin where the bulk of the coins value is based on how “collectible” or “rare” it is. Such values are highly subjective and only represent a “real value” if you can find a buyer. Try buying a 200 dollar silver dollar this week and see what the same shop will pay you for it (with out a big jump in price) the following week. This is the one rule that I understand when others break, this is my personal preference but I have my reasons.

5. What I do buy are Silver American eagles as they are priced right about bullion prices. I also buy high quality but common Franklin, Kennedy and Walking Liberty Half dollars which are still quite affordable and made of 90% pure silver. My other big favorites are the more common Morgan and Peace dollars. These coins to me represent a nice mix and all are very affordable and most importantly highly tied in value to the silver basis.

So what is my advice? Well I think it makes a lot of sense to buy some silver over the years and just have it as a hedge against inflation not to mention an investment that remain liquid in both the best and worst of times. The beauty is you can buy say a 10-20 dollar coin just once or twice a month if you don’t have a lot of extra money to invest. Even that over the years can build a nice collection and a lot of real value. I personally buy between 20-150 dollars a month of silver and have been doing so since 1995. As you can see by the graphs in this article that has been a very good move.

Many financial advisers are not very keen on investing in gold because they claim it has a fairly poor record compared to let’s say the S&P Average or the Dow Jones. Indeed a case can be made for this but there is another lesser know case for gold that make you really want to look at putting at least some money in gold. The reality is that the Dow and just about any metric or fund or stock has at some point a 10 year period where it lost money or at least lost to inflation and against gold.

Gold has never gone down over any 10 year period in history except for the early 80s when gold along with silver and other metals were artificially manipulated by the Hunt Brothers and other groups. Smart investors did not buy during that period though, if they were really smart they sold off gold and bought in back in the mid 80s.  Those investors did very well.

Now look I am certainly not advising you to put all of your money in gold or to take it all out of solid investments.  I am also against any real heavy numismatic investments in gold coins.  Yet to put 10-20% of a portfolio into gold or gold stocks or funds makes a lot of sense as a solid investment hedge.   Gold has gone up quite a bit in the past five years so many investors are a bit skiddish about buying it at a precieved high.  However there are a lot of factors in play right now that will most likely have a positive impact on Gold prices for a long time to come.

• The US Dollar continues to decline and the government seems to want it that way.   To understand this factor you need to grasp that gold could stay level in the global market and still go up in dollars, simply because the dollar declines.
• The economies of China and India and other nations are putting more demand on gold as a consumer level commodity.  As the middle class of these nations grow more demand for gold jewelry results in more demand for gold in the global market.
• Right now the demand for Gold is about 10% higher then the supply that is being produced.

All of these factors make gold an attractive alternative to conventional investments.  Of course you should consult with your financial advisors before you buy, I am just saying have a look at gold as one way to protect yourself against what looks like a coming recession and an ever falling dollar.

If you really want to be successful financially you have to follow the intuitive wisdom of the 12 year old that plays Pop Warner Football. That 12 year old sees himself as Bret Farve or Randy Moss or whoever his favorite player is when he takes the field. In his head he hears the crowd and when he makes the catch, tackle or completes a pass for a second he is that superstar.

When you want to build wealth and success you need to do the same thing. You need your own heroes to follow and model yourself after. Here are some of mine and why I follow their lead.

Donald Trump - I admire Donald Trump for a large number of reasons. His success as an entrepreneur and real estate investor of course speaks for itself. On the personal side, Trump often comes across as a real jerk but that is just who he is. Believe it or not I admire that as well, despite being in the public eye he does not try to make the public happy. He is who he is and if you don’t like it, tough! I respect that a great deal.

Trump is also completely honest with people (this is a big part of why he is considered a jerk) about the way he sees things. I never have felt that Trump is someone with a hidden political agenda, he is a patriot, a success and a tough business person with a world class team around him. Trump has also put great deal of effort into establishing educational programs for real estate investing and other financial education programs.

Richard Branson - Branson is a real entrepreneur and has a life envied by many but experienced by very few. Despite being amoung the richest people in the world though he is remarkably down to earth and even reasonably accessible. When you hear him interviewed you think he could just be a bit of an eccentric British guy that lived next door to you.

He owns Necker Island where he maintains his primary residence which was recently featured as the number one celebrity home ahead of Hugh Hefner and Bill Gates! Yet if you met him in a bar tomorrow he would sit down and have a beer or three with you. He has failed more times then he has succeeded in building companies yet he keeps doing it because he loves being a true entrepreneur.

Warren Buffett - Warren began working in his fathers broakrage firm at the age of 11 and never looked back. Known as “America’s most successful investor” I can’t help but admire him. Buffett employed a three pronged approach

• Generals: undervalued securities that possess margin of safety and meet expected return-to-risk characteristics
• Arbitrages: company events that are not related to broader market changes, such as mergers and acquisitions, liquidation, etc.
• Controls: build sizable holdings, ally with other shareholders or employ proxies to effect changes in companies

This approach has made him one of the richest men in the world but was actually a very “safe approach” to investing.

Jimmy Buffett - No not Warren’s brother and that is no typo either. I am talking about party hardy, parrot head, Margaritaville singing Jimmy Buffett from Mobile Alabama. Jimmy speaks to my fun side, the part of me that takes 15 days off, lays on a beach and just lets everyone else deal with my businesses two times a year. He is my “someday” archetype. The old man I want to be when all my battles have been fought and I fish on the beach and drink rum from a coconut.

There is more to Jimmy though, Mr Jim is rich my friends, very, very rich! He has worked branding magic around the “Margaritaville” theme and now owns bars, merchandising and a premium Tequila label. At the same time he has only done what he loved doing. When he first went to Nashville he was rejected by 18 consecutive record label executives, so he kept playing bars and clubs and being who he was.

The rest is history and now despite not having a top ten record in two decades he still sells out just about every show he does and his fans still want more. There are Buffett fans (Parrot Heads) from 8 - 80 and their numbers continue to grow. Why, Jimmy created an image, a brand and did so by being himself. To me that makes him a very successful business person.

Henry Ford - Henry could never have gotten into college even with a bribe, he did not have the grades, the desire or the “book smarts” for it. Yet he is more associated with the automobile then any of the people that actually invented it. Henry took automation to the extreme and made the assembly line a reality and brought the car to the average American. That one achievement may have had more influence on the wealth and growth of the United States then any other person from his era.

Not content to just make cars though, Henry was a master of efficiency. When suppliers bid on supplying him with engines he required the crates they came in to be made to specific specifications. Wanting his business his suppliers agreed, the crates were then disassembled by his workers and formed the floor boards of the Model T. Despite that he had massive amounts of scrap wood from all the shipping crates so he teamed up with E. G. Kingsford, who was a local real-estate agent, to buy land for a massive wood production and charcoal processing plant. With all the waste in government and business today we could use some guys like Ford around.

So those are my heroes in business! I have others but those are my big ones when it comes to money, building businesses and investing. I suggest you assemble your own heroes list. Be inspired by them, know their stories and utilize that creative visualization children do so well in back yards and school stadiums to reach further then you can on your own.