Building Wealth - Cutting Costs

Today the Down Jones Closed down a significant 370 points (almost 3%).  The question is why?  The answer, The Institute for Supply Management’s January report on the service sector, which accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, said the service side of the U.S. economy dropped sharply . The index dropped to 44.6 last month from a revised reading of 54.4 in December.  This the lowest number since 2001.

So what the heck is the real meaning of this?  The simple way of putting this is the U.S. economy is in a definite decline on the “service” side of the economy.   This is bad because so much of our economy (66%) is service based.

So what’s next?  It’s possible the services side of the economy could rebound some in February, like the manufacturing side did in January after its’ own slide in December.   The benefit of the Federal Reserve’s two big interest rate cuts in the latter part of January could also help spur the service sector back into growth mode later this year.

The key to understand here is this is another shot across the bow of the coming war that is a imminent recession that sooner of late will happen.  My advice yet again is to make sure you are not fully exposed in stocks right now.  We had a few good years but a slide is coming have a heart to heart with your advisers and put some of your investments into something safer for the next few years.

I have blogged a lot on gold, silver and other metals thus far because I firmly believe that they represent a great hedge against inflation, a good long term investment and because I feel they offer a lot of protection from the coming recession. So when this article from Forbes hit my RSS Reader this morning I was quick to have a look at it. The article is title, Gold’s Allure Growing, and I recommend you give it at least a quick read.

While I found the article interesting and quite accurate I do feel they sort of glossed over a key reason for gold going up recently and a reason that gold will continue to go up for quite a while. Here was the only mention of this factor in the article,

“Demand for the metal is also strong in Asia, for jewelery and as a store of value.”

That was the only mention of this factor in the entire article and I find this very much missing the boat. Why? Well, because with China and India what we have is more then 2 Billion (with a big B) people who are rapidly growing their middle class and both societies have a tremendous appetite for gold jewelry. I recently read a report on of the foremost expert on gold and mining operations who stated that we currently have “at least a 10% shortfall on the production vs. demand for gold most of which is attributed to the rising demand in India and China for gold jewelry.”

In other words those 2 billion people are buying gold faster then it can be extracted from the ground. The big issue with that is it has never happened before. The demand for gold has always been based on how rare it is and that has always created a demand yet until now anyone could always buy as much as they could afford. Today we have unmeetable demand and the demand is growing faster then the production and again this is the first time in modern history that such a condition has existed in the gold market.

I highly advise any investor (small or large) to have a serious heart to heart conversation with your financial advisers about putting at least 10-20% of your holdings into gold, gold funds, etc. The increased demand and declining dollar together make gold a real winning opportunity at least in my opinion right now.

Many people are familiar with the concept of a Roth IRA. For those that are not I will give a quick summary of the difference between Conventional and Roth IRAs and why I believe that a Roth is ALWAYS better for new contributions. Both offer significant tax advantages but one provides more advantages today while the other provides more advantages tomorrow. Given they are retirement investing vehicles clearly we should think more about the impact when we are 65 then when we are 30, 40, etc. Here is the basics of each…

• Conventional IRA - You put money in up to a set maximum per year. You then deduct your contributions from your income for that tax year. So if you owe taxes on 50,000 dollars for a tax year, contribute 10,000 to your conventional IRA you will then pay taxes only on 40,000. However, the tax is not avoided only differed until the time of withdrawal. When you then withdraw this money in retirement you pay taxes on 100% of the money you withdraw as 100% earned income. Oh and should social security survive till your retirement since a Conventional IRAs distributions are considered “income” it will effect what portion of your Social Security is taxed.

• Roth IRA - With a Roth we change the time of the tax advantage to the future vs. the present. So this year you owe taxes on 50,000 dollars and put 10,000 into your Roth IRA and you still pay taxes on the full 50K. However you will now never pay tax on that 10K you contributed or the interest earned on it EVER AGAIN. So if you are 30 in that year you will earn interest for 30 years or more tax free and you will NEVER pay a thin dime of tax on the earned interest. Also when you do withdraw the money it is already your money, it will never be considered “income”, you won’t pay any tax EVER.

Now some advisers point out that if you will have lower tax bracket in retirement and believe in “fuzzy math” that a conventional can win out. However, we should live in the world of practice vs. theory. What I have seen actually happen is that be it Roth or conventional people always contribute the same amount. What this means is while you will pay taxes on a Roth contribution today you will end up with the same amount of money at age 60, 65 or whenever you start to take the money out. In other words your tomorrow will be better with a Roth.

Now what many people do not even know is that a 401K which an employer provides can also now be set up with a Roth Option. With a 401K your employer takes a percentage of your check and deposits it for you. While 401’s have some restrictions that IRAs don’t they work quite similar in how they defer or eliminate taxes. The beauty is when you quit working you can roll your 401K into an equivalent IRA and that means if you have a Roth 401k you can roll to a Roth IRA and have money you can take as needed, keep inside the account as long as you like and never pay taxes on it or ever have it count as income.

Again though while the option of a Roth IRA is well known today most people are not aware of a Roth 401K so ask your employer to check into the option for you. To me they are better for all workers but for the youngest workers the advantages are even bigger. There is a good chance that your employer may not even be aware that they can offer a Roth 401k and as we said all the time in the Army “the squeaky wheel gets the grease”.

A few days ago I posted my thoughts about the proposed “economic stimulus” where the government will be giving back about 300 dollars per tax payer in a retroactive tax cut from 2007’s tax year. You can read my thoughts about this tax rebate here. In short though I believe income tax is theft and I am for any and all cutting of income tax for anyone from the poorest to the most wealthy. On the other side though I think this rebate is bad for the country because there will be NO SPENDING CUTS on anything to fund it. All we are doing is going deeper in debt. Again read my full post on this to understand this better.

What I wanted to ask though today is what will you do with your 300-600 dollars in rebates?

Since I posted that orginal post I have been getting many visitors each day finding my blog from Google, they are all searching for things like

• “when do we get our tax rebates”
• “government giving out rebate checks”
• “will we get stimulate the economy checks?”
• “when will we get our government rebate checks”
• “800 dollar rebate checks government”
• and you have to love this one “government giving 300 dollars to everyone“

Now I am not here to criticize anyone but my guess is most of the people doing these searches are just itching to get that “free money” and blow it. Indeed that is “the plan”, yes indeed Uncle Scam (not a misspelling) wants you to spend every dime on consumer goods to “stimulate the economy”. The theory is more spending is good because more money is in circulation.

So please comment below after you read this post and tell me what you plan to do with your money. As many may suspect mine will be invested and many in the government want to not give the money to people like me that will save it. No they want “good Americans” to spend the money and “put it to work”.

So what are you doing with your refund?

• Taking a vacation
• Just blowing it
• Saving it
• Paying on debt
• Investing it
• Not sure yet?

Let us know because it is interesting what happens when you really ask yourself what you will do with extra money. Perhaps just perhaps thinking about this may make a few more of us think about saving this refund for a really rainy day. Trust me if you remember 1978 times are really not that bad right now.

Keep in mind this is not some government “entitlement” this is indeed your money, your tax dollars that you paid being returned to you. To do so your government has grow our debt by BILLIONS more. Again I am 100% for any rebate, any tax cut, any tax abolishment. Just realize that our elected officials did not think about how to fund this thing, they are just buying your votes from you with your own money and charging it along with interest to your children.

So knowing that how will you be spending your money, remember it is indeed yours it is not a gift from our exalted officials.

Today I installed the contact form plugin for the WordPress blog platform. This is a great plugin that I recommend for anyone using WordPress; any way in just a few moments after adding my contact page, I got my first question. Here it is along with my answer,

“CostCutter, I have seen you do two posts recently stating how great low interest rates are and how anyone looking to refinance or buy is really lucky that rates are so low. I have also seen a lot of people on the T.V. saying that these rate cuts are actually bad. So which is it and why do these guys say low rates are so bad and you say they are so good.”

That is a great question but it assumes that I disagree with the folks saying these rate cuts are bad, actually I agree with them. My posts about low interest rates from today and the coming interest rate cut yesterday do seem to be positive on the rate cuts and they are but only on one dimension. What I am saying is if you need to refinance are are looking to buy a home then the low rates are very good for you as an individual. Therefore you should take advantage of them.

On the other side I actually think that long term these artificial rate cuts are just bad news for the economy. The reality is we have real problems in this nation that sooner or later have to come out. Things like rate cuts and tax cuts with no corresponding spending cuts only delay the eventual recession and every time we delay it we are just making the eventual market correction worse. No one in the government believes they can stop the recession, they just want to soften the landing but my belief and the belief of most economists is they are actually going to make it a much harder landing.

What you have to understand is why cutting interest rates “works” in the first place. The US economy is driven by spending, when spending slows then everything goes down. There are less jobs, less money in the system, less everything. When interest rates are low spending increases because it costs less money to borrow money so you can buy a bigger house, a bigger car, get a better rate on your credit card etc. These cuts cuts in “the prime rate” or how much the government charges your bank to borrow money. The bank of course is not in business for fun they add to the rate and loan money to you so lower prime rate equals lower rates for everyone and in theory more spending.

The problem is this theory only works long term if people are responsible with debt and it won’t help people who are already in the hole. If you are four payments behind on your home you can’t get a refinance loan no matter how low rates go. If you are paying 29% on your credit card your credit sucks and no one is going to give you a low interest one. Our country is in trouble because to many people spent money they can’t pay back and our government has done the same. When we artificially cut rates we simply put more people into more debt. In other words the country goes deeper into the hole and when at some point we are required to crawl out it will be more not less painful.

If this explanation seems oversimplified it isn’t.   In fact I will make it more simple. If your family is in debt and about to go broke and you take your debt of say 200,000 dollars and refinance it to a lower interest rate to reduce your payments it makes the situation better at first. If however, you then grow your debt back to the original payments you could not make then you are in more not less trouble. When our government puts out these low rates and increases personal and business debt in an economy where people are already in the hole it is the same exact thing.

In short I am glad for the responsible consumer that rates are low, I certainly did not want rates risen to higher levels but the reason behind this cut is nothing but a delay that is going to make what is bad already, worse.

Just yesterday I suggest looking into refinancing your home while rates are down and I also stated another rate cut was on the way, to wait for it and jump on it when it came.  24 hours later here we are, the market took a 400 point dump when it opened, the Fed panicked and cut rates before the end of the month meeting just as I said they would.    This is not an I told you so post though just another nudge to get going with a refinance if you are paying to much in interest, if you can make a smart move to pay off consumer debt (credit card debt) or if you were stupid and got into an ARM that will soon expire.

Right now I am finding rates are low a 5.125% on a 30 year fixed and todays cut is not even factored in yet.  Odds are you can get something in the 4.75-5.2% range with any type of decent credit assuming you have some equity in your home.  I don’t think you will see a better time in the next few years or perhaps the next decade.  Is this the absolute bottom for rates?  Who knows but it won’t get much better, my advice is to act now.

Also don’t fall for all the advertisements.  The best source to refinance a loan is most often your existing lender.  No one wants to loose a good mortgage client right now.  Last time I did a refinance I got all fees waived by my existing lender.  Remember if you don’t ask they generally won’t tell,  learn and use the phrase “is that the best you can do?” often.

I was just asked to review a web site called Finance Genius. I have to tell you I like what I saw. Basically the site is an information portal that helps consumers with a combination of advice and what amounts to a brokerage approach in connecting consumer to different options for things like insurance, mortgages, student loans and Auto Warranty services.  With automotive warranties in particular I always advise people to shop outside sources, the extended warranties offered by dealerships tend to be over priced and then simply lumped into your loan so you get to pay interest on it.  My additional advice is wait until your included warranty is almost up before paying for an extended on.  Why pay for a warranty you may not use?

Like any site that is recommending various financial products my advice is to shop what they have and compare it to other options.  Always make sure you find the best deal you can but Financial Genius certainly looks like one of the good guys so if you are in the market for any of their services have a look around their site and see what they have to offer.   Remember my view is debt is bad but when it is necessary get the best deal, with the best terms you can find.  Sites like this one are good tools for finding those types of deals.